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Europe for Europe’s Sake

Dec 5, 2019

Even before US President Donald Trump left a NATO summit early this week, sulking and humiliated, the alliance’s future had become unprecedentedly uncertain. But what that means for European defense will be largely up to Europeans themselves.

In this Big Picture, former German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer contends that, whatever lies in store for NATO, the European Union should be acting as if American troops had already withdrawn from the continent. And as former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt points out, whatever the outcome of the impeachment proceedings against Trump, Europeans cannot count on US diplomatic and foreign-policy channels functioning normally.

Meanwhile, Dominique Moisi of the Institut Montaigne worries that NATO’s denouement could be hastened by recent criticism from French President Emmanuel Macron, who is increasingly at odds with other European leaders on the issue. But as Nöelle Lenoir, a former member of France’s Conseil Constitutionnel, points out, most Europeans, including Germans, have begun to recognize the need for EU defense autonomy.

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Henk Crop Dec 24, 2019

This article is about the militairy defense of Europe within NATO.
What gets little attention howeverf is the demographic threat to Europe by the population explosion around its borders.
It is forecasted that the population of Africa will grow from 1250 million to 2500 million in 2050. The ME will also grow from 360 million in 2010 to 630 million in 2050.
The EU will remain stable with 500 million.
The EU has yet no effective protection of its borders, 30 years after Schengen when the internal borders were opened.
The EU has no effective policy to deport illegal immigrants, which on average comprise 80 % of the immigrants.
Worse, in the recently signed UN Marrakesh Pact it was agreed that the EU would pamper immigrants, but the migrant Nations would not be committed to take back their illegal citizen.
The result is that hundreds of thousands illegal migrants wander through the EU.
In Germany 350.000, France 400.000, Italy 500.000 - 700.000, the Netherlands 100.000.
NATO friend Erdogan threatens, once in a while, to send some more immigrants to the EU.
Refugees, who are supposed to return often stay.
There is no end in sight. In some cities over 50 % of the population are migrants, cohesion gets lost. Housing shortages increase, as well as crime.
All together the EU faces an existential threat, which the EU NATO partners should address.
Macron judged the NATO as brain dead. That you cannot say about the EU leadership. They keep thinking. They act like the Ostrich when it sees danger and they put their head in the sand.
It is time to consider if the Schengen agreement, on the freedom of people, can be maintained.
Steps have to be taken to deport the illegal immigrants.
The EU leaders should assume responsibity for their own country and people and not hide behind rules that were devised decades ago by bureaucrats of the EU or UN.
Rulings that protect the immigrant but often curtails the rights of the citizen in the host country.
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j. von Hettlingen Dec 8, 2019

Joschka Fischer says despite the inappropriate choice of words describing NATO as “brain-dead,” France’s president Emmanuel Macron has drawn attention to the future of Europe’s security, whose argument for defence autonomy looms large. Given Trump’s pursuit of a “nationalist, protectionist, and unilateralist foreign policy,” Europe can no longer rely on a “wayward” ally. In order to “preserve” NATO, Europe must “reinvent itself” and act now, as if US troops had already withdrawn from the Continent.
Fischer blames European countries, among others – Germany, for their “strategic dependence” on the US for decades, rendering Europe “unprepared – not just materially but psychologically – for today’s harsh geopolitical realities.” The idea that “Europe must fend for itself for the first time since the end of World War II” may be scary for many, especially those on the “eastern flank.” Hence, Macron’s recent proposal to warm up to Putin alarms countries that had formerly been in Russia’s orbit.
While “NATO provides a necessary form of insurance, and even fosters solidarity and unity within the EU,” only 7 member states meet the guideline of spending – 2% of GDP. It is essential that the rest of the Alliance increase their defence budget to meet the threshold. “America’s integration in European defense through NATO is indispensable,” but Europe must do more and “contribute its fair share to the greater good.”
Dominique Moisi worries that Emmanuel Macron’s “temperament” could prove his undoing – “the more brilliant, energetic, and imaginative he is, the more he runs the risk of isolating himself.” While the French president’s remark on NATO being “brain-dead” unleashed a backlash, it triggered a positive reaction from Trump. Once its critic Trump defended NATO at the London summit last week, which was considered a political success, despite acrimony within the Alliance.
With Angela Merkel stepping down in 2021, and Trump focusing on “America first,” Europe lacks “strategic leadership.” There was a time that Europe had a strong German chancellor and a weak French president. Moisi says the opposite is true today, and “Macron's coherent and imaginative vision for Europe is welcome.” But he is also “increasingly at odds with other European leaders,” pushing them around, and going back to France’s foreign-policy roots.
Apparently Macron is “frustrated not only by Trump’s total unpredictability, but also by the predictability, or even passivity, of Merkel.” He tries to “portray himself to the French, as well as portray France to Europe and the rest of the world, as de Gaulle once did." But Macron is “no Gaullist,” because he does not want “France to distance itself” from the US and the European project, “in order to regain some independence and sovereignty.”
Macron seeks to raise the awareness that Europe is very much on its own and “must do better, and do more” while putting further enlargement on hold. He must also dispel the suspicion that he “has chosen Russia over the US.” In the past the West adopted the policy “engage if we can, and contain if we must.” Moisi says one should do both with Russia today.
Carl Bildt says, unlike the administrations under Richard Nixon and Bill Clinton, which were engulfed by impeachment proceedings, the Trump administration is in total disarray. While in previous cases, in which both Nixon and Clinton had highly professional and experienced people serving the country, Trump surrounds himself with incompetent cronies and incapable sycophants, because he puts loyalty before their merits.
Bildt says the US functioned during the impeachment proceedings in 1973/1974 and 1998/1999 respectively, which had little affect on its foreign policy. But the ongoing ones “have already revealed deep rifts between” between the US and Ukraine, and “could jam up the machinery of US foreign policy.” Critics also fear that “Trump himself could make the current impeachment drama far worse for the rest of the world,” if he needed to deflect voter attention from the proceedings.
The constitutional crisis in Washington “comes at a time of rising global instability,” and much of it is of Trump’s own making. With the US no longer a “strategic actor” on the world stage, the turmoil in the Middle East; a revisionist Russia and a rising China left unchecked; the rules-based global order could unravel.
Noëlle Lenoir says it is time for Europe to focus on building a “common military capability,” because NATO is no longer effective and reliable, and the US not be trusted as a dependable ally. Trump’s trade wars and betrayal of allies may become a new normal of US policies even after he has left office. That in November 2018, Chancellor Angela Merkel delivered a speech to the European Parliament advocating the establishment of “a proper European army,” sent the signal that even the pacifist Germany is seeing the urgency for safeguarding Europe’s security interests. France and Germany will be intensifying their cooperation in projects that focus on “military equipment and research programs, joint troop trainings,” and eventually working out “a common defense strategy.”
Lenoir calls for wider support from other European countries to commit themselves to the task. Eastern European countries fear that the new defence project could weaken NATO, on which they rely for their security. So France and Germany will need to convince them that their fear may be unfounded.
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