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中国镇压香港为什么会适得其反

Mar 8, 2021 Minxin Pei

加利福尼亚州，克莱尔蒙特—香港人民迎来了牛年伊始的黑暗。2月16日，九名亲民主派活动人士，其中包括德高望重的香港民主党长期领袖，82岁高龄的Martin Lee在内，因被控非法集会而遭到审判。

一周后，香港政府宣布将颁布一项法律，只允许“爱国人士”进入地区委员会。地区委员会是最低等级的香港行政机构，其职责范围覆盖从卫生到交通等诸多行政领域。这将可能导致开除民选的委员会成员，并剥夺被认为不忠于执政党共产党的未来候选人参选的机会。

而后，2月28日，自去年7月中国对这个前英国殖民地实施最严厉的国安法以来所爆发的最大规模的镇压活动下，香港当局依法指控47名民主运动领导人犯下了“阴谋颠覆罪。”因为法律操纵审判程序以确保定罪能顺利进行，这些活动分子均面临多年监禁。

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j. von Hettlingen Mar 9, 2021

Minxin Pei says Chinese leaders’ “ultra-hardline course” in Hong Kong could backfire. They may well be “aware of the probable international consequences” of prosecuting 47 pro-democracy activists, but they believe the “costs are bearable” - for now. Their “gambit” seems to have paid off, given the tepid global response to its assault on democracy in Hong Kong. Nevertheless Xi Jinping is “throwing down the gauntlet” to the US and its allies – and “may be overplaying his hand.”
Amid a global pandemic, Xi has taken advantage of the chaos and the “despotic momentum” to pursue China’s long-term foreign policy goals more aggressively. As the national security law seems have “succeeded in instilling the rule of fear,” this may encourage him to deepen repression in Hong Kong, and “decapitate” its pro-democracy movement. So far “diplomatic denunciations and sanctions against a small number of senior Chinese and Hong Kong officials” had hardly hurt Beijing.
The author says, Xi “may have underestimated the costs of his actions” in Hong Kong. Chinese leaders “appear to have drawn a line” in dealing with Joe Biden: “China’s sovereign prerogatives in Hong Kong and the western province of Xinjiang are non-negotiable. China will do as it pleases in those places,” despite US warning of “repercussions” for human-rights abuses. But the recent charges against the pro-democracy activists, “coupled with a lack of goodwill gestures from China to improve ties with the United States, will most likely harden Biden’s stance.”
Given urgent priorities - containing Covid-19 and revamping economic growth - at home, the Biden administration wants “to avoid a frontal collision with China.” As Biden’s advisers deliberate the best strategy towards China, the regime’s “intensifying crackdown” in Hong Kong will undermine those, who advocate a “more nuanced and less confrontational approach” to Beijing, while vindicating hawks, who are convinced that “only a hardline position can modify” Chinese behaviour.
According to the author, “when the 47 pro-democracy activists are convicted and sentenced to long prison terms, the Biden administration will have no choice but to make China pay. The narrow window for stabilizing US-China ties, which should serve Chinese interests, will likely close, and bilateral relations could resume their dangerous downward spiral.” Beijing’s repressive rule in Hong Kong will “make it much easier for Biden to recruit wavering Western democracies as allies.”
Even before the signing of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment last December, many European countries were “hesitant about becoming full-fledged partners in a new US-led anti-China coalition. Aside from their extensive commercial interests in China, they worry that an unrestrained US-China geopolitical rivalry could plunge the world into a new cold war, disrupt and fragment the global economy, and doom any hope of combating climate change.”
The author hopes that European leaders respond to their voters, many of whom “care deeply about human rights” and are demanding a tougher approach to China. “It will not be long before Germany and France, in particular, find it untenable to maintain a policy that relies on strategic neutrality in the unfolding US-China duel to preserve their economic interests in China.” When Europe finally joins the Biden administration’s “nascent anti-China coalition, the credit should go not to America, but to Xi.”
For Chinese companies, which make up about 70% of Hong Kong’s market, this financial centre is hard to replace. “Such a coalition could impose painful costs on China for its actions in Hong Kong…. in the short term, the US and its allies cannot easily undermine Chinese efforts to build Hong Kong into a financial center capable of rivaling New York and London; after all, financial sanctions, such as a ban on investing in companies listed there, would cause chaos in global markets.”
The author says, the coalition still has “a wide array of other options to squeeze China.” A “decoupling China from global technology supply chains currently seems inconceivable, but could become a reality if the coalition agrees to a new arrangement similar to the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls, which choked off Western technology transfers to the Soviet bloc during the Cold War.” The only difference is that China is an economic superpower that the Soviet Union never was.
It remains to be seen whether “Western democracies could also deny Chinese leaders the international prestige they seek by curtailing high-level exchanges and vigorously contesting Chinese influence in multilateral organizations.” China is working hard to expand its omnipresene on the world stage. Many urgent issues require global efforts to tackle.
No doubt “sheltering victims of China’s crackdown in Hong Kong would be both a humanitarian gesture and a forceful rebuke of Chinese policy.” Ideal would be that Chinese people could have more say in politics and chart their path for a democratic future. This communist regime can not rule forever with an iron fist.
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Mr. Bu Mar 9, 2021

Has anything Dr. Pei ever written aged well? Serious question. I'm not trying to be a d--k or anything. I'm really trying to give him a chance. I think I'm pretty familiar with his oeuvre but I may have missed something.
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stephan Edwards Mar 8, 2021

I suspect the author is being somewhat... Optimistic? It's as good a way to put it has any. Folks countries DON"T have ethics they don't have morals. And Europe (among others) as long proved that interests outweigh any proclamation of morals or ethics. Note that for all the proclamations of morality that they still effectively fund Russia's government. Given a choice between China and the US the European powers will choose China it's more profitable & more predictable, and the Bureaucrat's much prefer predictable to changeable. And let's face it while they will make many pious pronouncements about how Trade will make China more liberal. The reality is China is more profitable then the the US and why hitch yourself to a fading star when you can join the tail of a rising star. No if the US stands up to China (And I mean if) The US will stand alone.

My own bet Biden will do what his big donors prefer a return to Status Quo Ante where the Chinese eat The States Lunch, Dinner & Breakfast. For that is what is most profitable for those OWN the US government in fee simple. And what is almost inevitably what happens.
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