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Apocalypse ou coopération ?

Aug 12, 2021 Jayati Ghosh

NEW DELHI – L'Apocalypse, c'est maintenant. C'est le message éclatant de la véritable tempête de COVID-19 et de conséquences du changement climatique qui a maintenant éclaté. Il est peu probable que la pandémie se termine avant plusieurs années, car le nouveau coronavirus mute en variants de plus en plus transmissibles et résistants aux médicaments. Et la catastrophe climatique n'est plus « imminente » mais se joue en temps réel.

Le dernier rapport du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat – dont les évaluations sont antérieures aux événements climatiques extrêmes de l'année dernière – nous dit que certains changements climatiques drastiques sont désormais irréversibles. Ceux-ci affecteront toutes les régions, comme le démontrent les récents incendies de forêt, vagues de chaleur et inondations. Ils endommageront également gravement de nombreuses espèces naturelles et affecteront négativement les possibilités et conditions de la vie humaine.

Maintenir le réchauffement climatique futur à un niveau gérable (même s'il dépasse l'objectif de 1,5°C de l'accord de Paris sur le climat de 2015) nécessitera un effort massif, impliquant de brusques inversions de politique économique dans chaque pays. Des changements majeurs dans l'architecture juridique et économique mondiale seront essentiels.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 8 Comments on this article

Enrique Woll Battistini Aug 15, 2021

August 15, 2021

THIS IS AND MUST BE THE PRIMAL TASK AND DUTY OF THE U.S. TO THE PEOPLES OF THE WORLD, FROM FOURTH WORLD TO FIRST WORLD, ESPECIALLY THE POOREST 🙂

Note on July 4, 2020 : Given the threats posed by Global Warming and the Anthropogenic input accelerating it, and by the Global COVID-19 Pandemic, in the face of a rudderless Government in the U.S., and the resulting calamitous Global Economic Crash that is currently unfolding, with mass hunger and illness to be expected at this time and for the foreseeable future, it has become evident that drastic Development Proposals on a Global Scale will have to be conceived and implemented without delay. This is and must be the primal task and duty of the U.S. to the Peoples of the World, from Fourth World to First World, especially the poorest, given the enormous Development it has garnered for the so-called American People since its founding, with the incessant and stolid participation of these very same peoples. This is one such proposal: Mathematical Model and Simulation for "A Partnership for Development with the United States of America", at no cost to the U.S., but great profit, that would articulate Private Sector and Public Sector entities pertinent to environmentally-friendly holistic socioeconomic development in the American Hemisphere, bringing together its 35 nations, in a concerted effort to reduce and eliminate the existing Ominous Welfare Gap, led by the Private Sector, for profit. This very same scheme can be implemented on a North-South basis, not only in the Americas, but in Europe Africa, and Asia Oceania. Model and Simulation developed in Excel in 1999, and subjected to its subsequent versions through Excel 2003 and its updates through 2014. Some macros may not work appropriately today.

https://www.academia.edu/.../Mathematical_Model_and...

A cursory analytical look at Thomas Piketty's Thesis clearly suggests that the intrinsic nature of Capitalism ensures that the rich will get richer and the poor poorer, ad infinitum, till annihilation of the poorest, in any society in any country, unless taxation through a sole consumption tax is used to regularly redistribute the wealth created in all societies, within societies, in such a way as to preempt consumption by the poorest from falling below the threshold of autonomous survival with monotonically increasing welfare potential, that would bring their share of wealth consumption irreversibly and asymptotically closer to consumption by the richest of the rich over time. This condition would not imply equality, only the trend to equality, but when perceptible, would ensure the possibility of harmonious socioeconomic development and peace. Absolute extreme poverty as well as relative extreme poverty would be eradicated, and planetary rescue could then be pursued, essentially through voluntary population stabilization, production and consumption stabilization, and carbon emissions stabilization.

https://www.academia.edu/.../Informal_Proof_of_Thomas...

At the crux of world peace, and planetary rescue, would be tax reform, via Sole Consumption Tax (SCT), that would enable eradication of absolute extreme poverty and relative extreme poverty, through regular income redistribution ensuring the attainment of autonomous survival with increasing welfare potential for the poorest, that would irreversibly approach that of the richest, voluntary population stabilization, voluntary production and consumption stabilization, and carbon emissions stabilization.

https://www.academia.edu/.../La_Reforma_Tributaria_del...

The capitalization imbalance between the northern hemisphere, and the southern hemisphere, developed countries and the underdeveloped, and between OECD countries and the rest, suggests that something may be failing in the capital markets’ capacity to arbitrate investments: It would seem that it does not function effectively, and that the not so uncommon perception of increasing relative backwardness of the Third World is true. If so, beyond investigating its causes, it is necessary to investigate the attributes, achievements, and plans of existing multilateral and governmental poverty eradication and economic development organizations, and of their private counterparts, and the regulatory environment, in order to determine the need and opportunity for the creation of new private-public systems to increase the north-south investments rate.

https://www.academia.edu/.../WOLL_THE_ROLE_OF_INVESTMENT...

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vivek iyer Aug 14, 2021

It is sad that so many academics in poor countries like India don't teach their students anything useful preferring instead to lecture a world which is wholly indifferent to their virtue signaling. It is vital that people in the developing world be taught about technology and how to raise agricultural and other types of productivity. Mindlessly consuming junk social science and woke academic posturing causes Humanity to write vacuous articles. Will future species wonder why anybody ever thought the Planet of the Apes had a clever ending? No. Don't be silly.
- Peter Quennell Aug 23, 2021
  
  Vivek, all development involves new or better systems, there is no other kind, and we in the UN found US and European universities no more useful than what you say about Indian, the problem being that academic success depends on being a rooster who always wants to head the parade and academics almost invariably causes development to stop being a team thing. (Same with consultants like McKinsey by the way, remember WHO had McKinsey in-house when COVID19 arose.)
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- Thaomas H Aug 15, 2021
  
  Ghost makes a good, if not terribly original, point that rich countries are making a big mistake in not addressing global externalities like the spread of disease and the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. How many fewer deaths from the Delta variant would the US have suffered if it had been half or quarter dosing vaccines so that India could be doing the same earlier on?
  - vivek iyer Aug 15, 2021
    
    Ghosh & her husband Sen were welcome to have studied under Partha Dasgupta, whom we could consider Meade's successor (he is certainly his son-in-law) to have developed useful models in this respect. This would have been beneficial to both optimal resource depletion in countries like India as well as to global models and Chichilnisky type markets in this respect. Teaching ideological nonsense to Indians who are too poor to afford to study abroad turned out to be a bad idea. The Left has completely disappeared from Ghosh's native West Bengal. What is the point of saying 'rich should stop being so damn rich?' Who will take any notice? Which country or company is saying- 'we got to get Ghosh or Sen to help save us from bankruptcy or help us raise living standards or environmental standards'. None at all.
    
    Jeff Bezos employs plenty of economists- but not ones like Ghosh or Sen. That's why he can pay for a space jaunt which will end up making him even richer and which will enable new even more productive technologies to become scalable. Meanwhile, Ghosh and Sen haven't earned India a single red cent in terms of productivity increase. Every Rupee spent subsidising their students has been a Rupee wasted. True, some Leftist Indian economists get affirmative action in the West. But other Indians can become billionaires while greatly raising productivity.
    
    The Apocalypse- the word means 'rending of the veil' is here. We must acknowledge that the Ghoshs and the Varoufakises and the Sens and so forth were harmful, not helpful. Defund them now. Ecrasez l' infame!
    - vivek iyer Aug 15, 2021
      
      The bottleneck for India- like most other places- wasn't vaccine availability related. This is not a zero sum game. Both Indian and US regulators and policy makers made mistakes. Good Economists could have spotted them. But India does not produce good Economists because the Left dominated the elite institutions.
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Peter McLoughlin Aug 12, 2021

We cannot talk about climate apocalypse without talking about nuclear apocalypse - nuclear winter. https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/
- Thaomas H Aug 15, 2021
  
  But neither is very helpful in figuring out the optimal tax on CO2 emissions needed to reduce future harm from the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. Tail risk is only part of the calculation.
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