krueger47_ISHARA S. KODIKARAAFP via Getty Images_srilankapoverty

无条件债务支持的徒劳

Jan 20, 2022 Anne O. Krueger

华盛顿—疫情在世界范围内造成了动荡和困难，对低收入和中等收入国家的影响尤其严重。与富裕国家相比，中低收入国家的疫苗供应更为有限，储存最有效疫苗所需的冷藏设施也受到严重限制。在许多中低收入国家，卫生保健工作者稀缺，治疗新冠患者的设施不足，公共卫生系统的组织、资金和管理不善。

困难也不仅限于卫生方面。在许多中低收入国家，糟糕的经济政策选择导致了通货膨胀、财政赤字、国际收支困难和沉重的偿债负担。虽然个别高收入国家、国际金融机构和非政府组织提供了一些资金，但这还不够。

此外，即使没有疫情，许多中低收入国家也将面临严重的经济困难。阿根廷已经和与国际货币基金组织（IMF）进行了几个月的谈判，以减轻紧迫的偿债负担和重要进口商品的短缺问题。在土耳其，总统埃尔多安违背了几乎所有经济学家的共识（更不用说常识），坚持高利率导致了通货膨胀。结果，土耳其的利率比最近公布的30%的通货膨胀率低了16个百分点以上，外币债务高企且不断上升，土耳其人的贫困比例急剧增加。

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Anne O. Krueger

Writing for PS since 2014
54 Commentaries

Anne O. Krueger, a former World Bank chief economist and former first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, is Senior Research Professor of International Economics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and Senior Fellow at the Center for International Development at Stanford University.

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Gerardo Paez Jan 21, 2022

I find this article by Krueger really problematic. The author, former director of the IMF when Argentina had one of its greatest economic crises generated by IMF austerity policies and failed bailouts, analyses the case of an hypotetic program awarded to Sri Lanka, country that she states " has steadfastly refused to approach the IMF" and hasn't done so until now.

The author could have instead gone into another IMF failure in Argentina, the largest Stand by Arrangement signed by any country in IMF's history (USD 57 billon), money that was given with the aim to support one of US´'s ally governments in Latin America and only benefitted private holders of soverign debt, exactly the case described in the hypotetic support given to Sri Lanka, she writes, "Maintaining support will merely enable payments to public and private creditors while doing little to alleviate hardship or mitigate the economic crisis".

IMF austerity policies have been widely demonstrated to not work, especially in these troubled times signed by Covid 19 needs Krueger describes quite well.
- Jean Louis Martin Jan 23, 2022
  
  I agree with your remarks: Mrs Krueger's argument is based only on the case of Sri Lanka, and she only marginally mentions the case of Argentina, certainly one of the worst failures of the IMF, and that twice, during the Menem governments of the 90s and during the Macri government. In Mrs. Krueger's defense, it should be remembered that she only arrived at the IMF in September 2001: in Argentina, the damage had already been done.
  - Gerardo Paez Jan 23, 2022
    
    Yes, she certainly arrived late in 2001 at IMF and most of the damage had already been done, however, that emphasizes the problem is not about names but the policies it recommends, and the actual continuity between Mrs Krueger's argument and IMF austerity.
    - Jean Louis Martin Jan 23, 2022
      
      Dear Mr. Páez: It is true, there is a great continuity, confirmed by the silence of the IMF during the first years of the Macri government. There are also differences within the IMF. The document published by the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office after the 2001 crisis clearly states that the technical staff had not believed in Menem's economic policy for several years, but that political pressure within the IMF had prevailed. You may also have read the "Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access under the 2018 SBA", published by the IMF in December 2021: the "Executive Board Assessment" (page 2) still mentions differences between administrators. No country is mentioned, but there are "usual suspects".
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