jjoffe4_ Shan YuqiXinhua via Getty_cdu party conference

不带安其拉的默克尔

Jan 18, 2021 Josef Joffe

汉堡—欧洲政党领导人选举——整个欧盟大概有200人——通常不是什么大事。但如果这个政党是欧盟最大最富裕国家的最强大的政治力量，那么领导人选举就是一件大事。

周末，德国基督教民主联盟（CDU）指定阿尔明·拉舍特（Armin Laschet），这位谦和面善的北莱茵-威斯特伐利亚总理为党主席。拉舍特在世界舞台上算不上明星。但记住这个名字。统计数据表明，CDU最有可能问鼎德国总理宝座。

德国战后八位总理中有五位来自CDU——从阿登纳到现任默克尔。默克尔的政党目前在全国民调中大幅领先，想必在9月的大选后，默克尔的继任者将再次从这个保守阵营中选出。

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j. von Hettlingen Jan 28, 2021

Josef Joffe says with Armin Laschet being chosen as the new leader of Germany’s biggest party, the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), he will be the “front-runner” to succeed Angela Merkel as new chancellor in September. He has beaten one of her longest-standing rivals, the conservative hardliner Friedrich Merz in a run-off vote, following a strong speech that emphasised social cohesion and held up recent scenes from Washington as a warning example of divisive leadership.
Laschet has formally replaced Merkel’s previously designated successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who announced her resignation as CDU chair in February 2020 after a hapless stint in the spotlight. Merkel, who led the party since 2000, and became chancellor in 2005, stepped down in December 2018, after her own party and its coalition partner, the party of Social Democrats (SPD) received a significantly lower proportion of the vote in the 2017 election.
In times of geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty amid a global pandemic, Laschet’s promise to stay on Merkel’s course of consensus politics may also earn him the opportunity to lead the CDU into the elections on September 26 as its official candidate for chancellor. The author says, “historically, the party chair has had first dibs as standard-bearer, but not necessarily a lock on the nomination, which is scheduled for March.”
Embracing political continuity, there would be little change in Laschet’s new government, which observers characterise will be one with “Merkel minus Angela.” Laschet “does not promise a new dawn, or a break with 16 years of Merkel’s centrism and its creeping leftward tilt.” Nevertheless her CDU party “currently leads in national polls by a wide margin, making it a safe bet that Merkel’s successor will again hail from the conservative camp.”
However Laschet’s odds of becoming the next chancellor depends on whether he can prevent Markus Söder, from being nominated. An “unassuming” premier from Germany’s most populous state, Laschet does not enjoy nationwide support. Söder “the ambitious and politically flexible leader of the CDU's Bavarian sister party,” the (CSU), could run for the chancellorship. The health minister, Jens Spahn, who ran as the number two in Laschet’s campaign could be another contender.
If Laschet were to be nominated as the CDU’s chancellor candidate in the coming weeks, he would find himself campaigning against the colourless but competent Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, currently Germany’s finance minister. The Covid-19 pandemic is a game-changer, prompting governments across the world to increase spending and redistribution. Trillions of euros are being showered on individuals and “system-relevant” corporations.
The author says “Merkelism” in foreign policy will remain the same. “In the three-way race for the top party job, Laschet’s two rivals – Friedrich Merz and Norbert Röttgen – promised to rebalance German interests in favor of “Westernism”: more for defense and NATO, fewer goodies for Russia and China. Laschet, though, would follow in Merkel’s footsteps” - staying out of America’s conflicts with China and Russia, and trying to be “on good terms with each and all.” Most of all safeguarding Germany’s interests, which are essential to its economic growth.
Whoever Merkel’s party nominiates in March does not matter much to the rest of the world. Given the political fragmentation in German politics, multiparty system and coalition governmenst are more rule than exception. There will be “no sudden lurches” in politics as it is often the case in the UK and the US, where the pendulum of the two-party system swings back and forth.
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