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Feb 8, 2023 Ian Buruma

نيويورك ـ في خطاب ألقاه في مدينة فولغوغراد الروسية، المعروفة سابقًا باسم ستالينجراد، أثار الرئيس الروسي فلاديمير بوتين مؤخرًا أهوال الحرب العالمية الثانية لتبرير غزوه لأوكرانيا. فقد قال بشكل صريح وصارم، دون أن يذكر أن المملكة المتحدة والولايات المتحدة كانتا حليفتي الاتحاد السوفيتي خلال الحرب: "علينا صد عدوان الغرب الجماعي باستمرار". وأضاف أنه في ذلك الوقت، كما هي الحال الآن، أصبحت روسيا مهددة من قبل الدبابات الألمانية، مُجبرة على الدفاع عن نفسها ضد "أيديولوجية النازية في هيئتها الحديثة".

يُعد هذا الوصف بطبيعة الحال تشويهًا للتاريخ، حيث تم تقديمه على نحو ساخر في الموقع حيث قُتل أكثر من مليون جندي سوفيتي وألماني خلال أكثر المعارك دموية في الحرب العالمية الثانية. إن روسيا لا تدافع عن نفسها. فقد غزت دولة ذات سيادة تصادف أن رئيسها فولوديمير زيلينسكي رجل يهودي فقد أقاربه في محرقة الهولوكوست. إن الإيحاء بأن الأيديولوجية النازية هي التي تدفع زيلينسكي ورفاقه الأوكرانيين للدفاع عن بلادهم ضد العدوان الروسي أمر غير منطقي، حتى وفقًا لمعايير بوتين.

أما بالنسبة للدبابات الألمانية التي يُزعم أنها تُهدد روسيا، فإن السبب وراء تردد المستشار الألماني أولاف شولتز لفترة طويلة قبل الموافقة على إرسال 14 دبابة من نوع "ليوبارد 2" إلى أوكرانيا يكمن في عدم رغبته في النظر إلى ألمانيا باعتبارها قائدًا عسكريًا. قرر شولز دعمها فقط بعد أن وافق الرئيس الأمريكي جو بايدن مُكرَهًا على تزويد أوكرانيا بدبابات أبرامز من طراز "إم 1"، بعد شهور من رفضه القيام بذلك.

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Mirek Fatyga Feb 8, 2023

With due respect for Mr Buruma, he should perhaps remind himself of this phrase: "History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes" (Mark Twain).

History is a product of objective, material conditions interacting with human nature. Human nature, in turn, is modulated by learning. Modulation by learning is cyclical because of generational amnesia. Generational amnesia arises because people learn best from personal experience, particularly traumatic personal experience. Best history lessons no longer appeal to emotions in a way that experience did for those who wrote the lessons. Thus, new generations keep rediscovering old horrors despite their grandparent's promises of "never again".

Putin is a Russian dictator. As such, he has elements in him of Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and all the other monsters of prior century. Between Russia and Ukraine, he has already murdered ~250,000 people in one year. He is doubling and tripling down, as most dictators do, which means that the butcher's bill will grow further and it could even spike if he finally uses a nuke or two.

In terms of historical analogy, current situation resembles very closely 1930-ies, with some critical differences. Differences do not nullify the acute danger that similarities pose.

We have a fully developed Fascist state in Russia that started war of aggression in Europe. The territories that this state contests are territories that were included in the secret annex to the Ribbentrop-Molotov treaty: Ukraine (Western Ukraine was in polish hands before WW2), the Baltics and Moldova. Baltics are part of NATO today but I have no doubt that a success in the war with Ukraine would embolden Putin at least to a point of seeking to compromise these states in some way.

Similar to 1930-ies, Western Democracies are sliding into the confrontation, fearful to embrace it as a necessity that one did not desire or ask for but which became a necessity nonetheless. This, again, is part of a cyclical process of generational forgetting. Politicians in Western Democracies find it very hard to tell their populations the truth that voters do not want to hear, which is that an actual war is upon them and societies need to mobilize to ensure their own survival. A normalcy bias is a very powerful impulse.

The most important difference between now and then is that the Democratic Center is still holding in the West of Europe, if by a thread. In other words, we already have Molotov in the East (his name is Lavrov), but we do not yet have a Ribbentrop in the West. We have EU and NATO instead. As long as these two are holding up, there is hope that we may still avoid a major war with a high potential to go nuclear.

Putin should absolutely be compared to the monsters of the past. He is no different. His circumstances are somewhat different and thus he is facing different constraints. The problem is not so much Putin the person, but the very phenomenon of unaccountable Dictatorship. If we are to learn from history and avoid the nuclear holocaust, we will have to both draw and act upon this conclusion: Dictatorship anywhere is a threat to everyone. Dictatorship in a major country, with high military potential, is a mortal threat to everyone, a clear and present danger in the nuclear era. We thus not only need to nurture Democracy everywhere (particularly at home) but also create a coalition of Democratic countries which actively oppose Dictatorships and seek their replacement by democratic regimes. This will impose limits on the concept of sovereignty that has been practiced heretofore. People can choose their taxes or social safety net as they see fit, but if they choose Dictatorship over Democracy they automatically become a threat.
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