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Culture

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Feb 8, 2023 Ian Buruma

NEW YORK – Ruský prezident Vladimir Putin v nedávném projevu ve Volgogradu, dříve ve Stalingradu, připomněl hrůzy druhé světové války, aby ospravedlnil vlastní invazi na Ukrajinu. „Znovu a znovu musíme odrážet agresi kolektivního Západu,“ pronesl s kamenným výrazem, aniž zmínil, že Velká Británie a Spojené státy byly za války spojenci Sovětského svazu. Tehdy i dnes, dodal Putin, ohrožují Rusko německé tanky a země je nucena bránit se „ideologii nacismu v moderní podobě“.

Samozřejmě je to ohavné překroucení dějin, navíc cynicky pronesené v místě, kde během nejvražednější bitvy druhé světové války padl více než milion sovětských i německých vojáků. Rusko se nebrání; napadlo suverénní stát, jehož prezident Volodymyr Zelenskyj je shodou okolností Žid, který během holocaustu ztratil příbuzné. Naznačovat, že Zelenského a Ukrajince žene k obraně vlasti před ruskou agresí nacistická ideologie, je nehorázné dokonce i na Putinovy poměry.

A pokud jde o německé tanky, které údajně ohrožují Rusko, důvodem, proč německý kancléř Olaf Scholz tak dlouho váhal, než souhlasil s vysláním 14 tanků Leopard 2 na Ukrajinu, je skutečnost, že nechtěl, aby bylo Německo vnímáno jako vojenský lídr. Scholz se rozhoupal teprve poté, co americký prezident Joe Biden zdráhavě souhlasil s poskytnutím tanků M1 Abrams Ukrajině, což předtím několik měsíců odmítal.

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Mirek Fatyga Feb 8, 2023

With due respect for Mr Buruma, he should perhaps remind himself of this phrase: "History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes" (Mark Twain).

History is a product of objective, material conditions interacting with human nature. Human nature, in turn, is modulated by learning. Modulation by learning is cyclical because of generational amnesia. Generational amnesia arises because people learn best from personal experience, particularly traumatic personal experience. Best history lessons no longer appeal to emotions in a way that experience did for those who wrote the lessons. Thus, new generations keep rediscovering old horrors despite their grandparent's promises of "never again".

Putin is a Russian dictator. As such, he has elements in him of Hitler, Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot and all the other monsters of prior century. Between Russia and Ukraine, he has already murdered ~250,000 people in one year. He is doubling and tripling down, as most dictators do, which means that the butcher's bill will grow further and it could even spike if he finally uses a nuke or two.

In terms of historical analogy, current situation resembles very closely 1930-ies, with some critical differences. Differences do not nullify the acute danger that similarities pose.

We have a fully developed Fascist state in Russia that started war of aggression in Europe. The territories that this state contests are territories that were included in the secret annex to the Ribbentrop-Molotov treaty: Ukraine (Western Ukraine was in polish hands before WW2), the Baltics and Moldova. Baltics are part of NATO today but I have no doubt that a success in the war with Ukraine would embolden Putin at least to a point of seeking to compromise these states in some way.

Similar to 1930-ies, Western Democracies are sliding into the confrontation, fearful to embrace it as a necessity that one did not desire or ask for but which became a necessity nonetheless. This, again, is part of a cyclical process of generational forgetting. Politicians in Western Democracies find it very hard to tell their populations the truth that voters do not want to hear, which is that an actual war is upon them and societies need to mobilize to ensure their own survival. A normalcy bias is a very powerful impulse.

The most important difference between now and then is that the Democratic Center is still holding in the West of Europe, if by a thread. In other words, we already have Molotov in the East (his name is Lavrov), but we do not yet have a Ribbentrop in the West. We have EU and NATO instead. As long as these two are holding up, there is hope that we may still avoid a major war with a high potential to go nuclear.

Putin should absolutely be compared to the monsters of the past. He is no different. His circumstances are somewhat different and thus he is facing different constraints. The problem is not so much Putin the person, but the very phenomenon of unaccountable Dictatorship. If we are to learn from history and avoid the nuclear holocaust, we will have to both draw and act upon this conclusion: Dictatorship anywhere is a threat to everyone. Dictatorship in a major country, with high military potential, is a mortal threat to everyone, a clear and present danger in the nuclear era. We thus not only need to nurture Democracy everywhere (particularly at home) but also create a coalition of Democratic countries which actively oppose Dictatorships and seek their replacement by democratic regimes. This will impose limits on the concept of sovereignty that has been practiced heretofore. People can choose their taxes or social safety net as they see fit, but if they choose Dictatorship over Democracy they automatically become a threat.
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