There is ample reason to worry that major economies like the United States are heading for a recession, accompanied by cascading financial turmoil. Some of the worst elements of both the 1970s and the 2008 crash are now in play, with equity markets likely to move deeper into bear territory.
says six factors will determine how bad the next downturn will be for the real economy and equity markets.
马尼拉—新冠肺炎疫情爆发伊始，分析师和专家们就这场危机将如何重塑全球经济提出了设想。许多人鼓吹我们将迎来改变金融系统、供应链和工作方式的机会。总体而言，疫情后的未来将更环保、更健康、更公正。
如今，疫情已经开始了两年，人们对创造经济“新常态”的兴奋已基本消散。除了偶尔的封锁和戴口罩外，世界基本上已经恢复正常。抗击疫情一再被描述为“战争”，但并没有发生类似于战时动员的根本变化。相反，全球疫情应对措施是在疫情前经济规范下运作。尽管人们迫切呼吁“人民的疫苗”，多次呼吁疫苗平等，但市场规则主导了疫苗分配，制药行业一切照旧，并未改革。
同样，政策制定者继续表现得好像——用 格蕾塔·通贝里（Greta Thunberg）的话说——世界并没有十万火急。联合国秘书长古特雷斯将政府间气候变化专门委员会的最新报告描述为“人类的红色警戒”。然而，各国目前在 2015 年巴黎气候协定建立的框架下所作的国家自主贡献不足以实现巴黎协定将全球变暖限制在 1.5 摄氏度（相对于工业化前水平）的目标。
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