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Economics

The Trump Narrative and the Next Recession

Aug 30, 2019 Robert J. Shiller

So far, with his flashy lifestyle, the US president has been a resounding inspiration to many consumers and investors. But his personal narrative is unlikely to survive an economic downturn, because people pull back during such periods and reassess their views and the stories they find believable.

NEW HAVEN – US President Donald Trump concluded his remarks at the recent G7 summit by inviting the assembled leaders to hold next year’s meeting at his Doral country club near Miami, describing a fantasy-like world of “magnificent buildings” whose “ballrooms are among the biggest in Florida and the best.” It was yet another instance of Trump’s public narrative, which has been on a rising growth path for nearly a half-century.

One can observe this by searching Trump’s name in digital news sources, like Google Ngrams. His narrative has been slow to grow by contagion, but it has been growing for a long time, such that his domination of public discourse in the United States almost seems implausible.

Part of Trump’s genius has been to pursue for a lifetime the features that have sustained narrative contagion: showcasing glamor, surrounding himself with apparently adoring beautiful women, and maintaining the appearance of vast influence.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 32 Comments on this article

Ray Halpin Sep 6, 2019

''So far, with his flashy lifestyle, the US president has been a resounding inspiration to many consumers and investors. But his personal narrative is unlikely to survive an economic downturn, because people pull back during such periods and reassess their views and the stories they find believable.''

No they don't. Not in times like these. They simply intensify their dedication to faulty beliefs and attribute their failure to someone else - to someone who has to 'pay' for what's happened. Scapegoats will be found. Blood will be spilled. Lives will be taken.
- Victor Morris Sep 8, 2019
  
  Leadership comes in many styles, Churchill was dubbed a war monger when the Natzi,s started to rise, History tells a different story. Trump was the black eye Americans gave their politicians for there corrupt leadership. Shiller demeaning Trump misses the point, and adds to the swamp mentality that rallied Americans to vote for this outsider. When Ralph Nader ran for president he concluded (only a millionaire should run for president if we want real change), Washington hates Trump because he,s making the needed change that politicians only would do if they got paid for it, and that’s what draining the swamp means. I suspect Trump will be missed for his bold leadership at the end of his final term.
  - Jose Chacon Sep 17, 2019
    
    Condescending? maybe. Demeaning, no. Only facts and observations of recent history.
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Victor Morris Sep 3, 2019

If President Trump looses the next election, we will have a recession, if he wins we wount have one four 4 more years.
- Jose Chacon Sep 17, 2019
  
  Your statement is devoid of logic, but then again, logic escapes the Trump crowd.
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- Don Ramble Sep 3, 2019
  
  Loses ..... won’t
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eric zepp Sep 1, 2019

Since every President's personality, performance, and policies gets a thorough going through during a recession, it is with inadvertent irony, that the author says "None of this is original."
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Petey Bee Sep 1, 2019

Will a recession knock down Trump's approval ratings? Surely.

Will it cause a Democrat to get elected? Possibly, if the nominee has something compelling to offer to remedy the situation. We already know what Trump will offer: cut taxes, "get tough" with trade partners, and prevent immigrants and minorities from joining the labor force or climbing the ladder.

If Democrats' new (post Mueller) strategy to defeat Trump is to exploit an economic crisis, which is an okay strategy, then the requirement is a candidate prepared to campaign on "pocketbook" issues. A candidate who is simply "I am not the other guy" will give Trump a blank canvas to paint on.... a skilled politician uses a crisis to his advantage, and unscrupulous Republicans have outmaneuvered the conflicted modern era Dem party time and time again.
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ALAN MANAS Sep 1, 2019

Who is responsible for the lack of real per capita income growth in the U.S. over the last 30 years? Is it the politicians?

I believe the politicians are just repeating the outdated economics taught in the major U.S. economics programs of which this writer is a distinguished member.

Few of the them have made an attempt to change their fundamental beliefs in the face of the rise of China, Singapore and Japan in the post World War period.

Trump is not stupid. He has been deeply involved in global business. And maybe more importantly, he runs in a circle where he has been exposed to ideas about global business and economics that run counter to what is being taught at the elite universities.

His stances on the immigration of low skilled populations, investment, currency manipulation, trade and export manufacturing are in total agreement with those at the Chinese Ministry of Finance.

Maybe our academics should be adapting to the rise of China rather than insisting that we follow their failed economic policies into oblivion and poverty. China will not be a kind master.
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Alan Blair Sep 1, 2019

As with any leader, if there is a large failure (think Obama's worst recovery since WWII and 1.6% growth) than the public will re-evaluate his leadership. Right now Trump is at 2.7% economic growth. If he fails we can have this re-evaluation. Right now he is the best president since Reagan.
- BDalton Sep 6, 2019
  
  Alan..your post is ridiculous..and wrong. Please answer Ezra’s question to you, if you will
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- Ezra Zask Sep 1, 2019
  
  When will this false narrative cease? Obama saved capitalism (with Bernake) in 2008 and set up the conditions for a sustained growth of which Trump is only the lucky recipient. Can you name ONE thing Trump has done to sustain this growth, which began during Obama's term? The only threat to the Obama economy is the ignorance of Donald Trump who still thinks a trade deficit means we are handing money over to the Chinese, rather than we are consuming more goods than the Chinese?
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Clivus Multrum Aug 31, 2019

It’s not Trump’s “narrative” driving the vibrant economy, it’s his economic policies.

We're in the midst of another expansion, likely to continue with minor dips along the way, that will last decades. . . . . just like Reagan’s ...... the political left knows it and it’s what’s driving them bonkers trying to explain it away.
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Robert Wolff Aug 30, 2019

I assume when Schiller talks about Trump, he is referring to the Messiah.

The Human Species started out long ago to glorify their tribal leaders, and it was only after the abuses of the Egyptian Pharaohs that Moses proclaimed the God of all things as the leader of the Jews, which represented his take on the character of the Pharaohs as pure Narcissism.

Now, in the West-world, we have the concept of God as the tribal leader who can melt mountains, and at the very least lead his own nation/tribe into supreme power and discretion over all others.

The Narcissistic Leader is defensive, rude, arrogant, and the saviour of his Tribe, just as Trump is the Messiah of the Jews and the West.

Isn't this what the West and Americans wanted?

My next comment will be about "Conquering Narcissism", defeating the Human Spirit, and what it means for those nations and their peoples that accomplish this feat.
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Ryan Darwish Aug 30, 2019

In a free democratic society Trump’s electability might be impaired as a result a losing favor with the voters. However, as Trump has already shown with his defiance of judicial and political norms, we cannot dismiss the possibility that the electoral process could be corrupted or otherwise manipulated, to subvert the will of the people.
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The Trump Narrative and the Next Recession

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