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Economics

كيف نتعامل مع الصين

May 27, 2022 Paola Subacchi

لندن ــ أصبح النظام العالمي عُـرضة لخطر انقسام دائم، حيث تقف الولايات المتحدة وحلفاؤها على جانب، والصين وشركاؤها على الجانب الآخر. وكما أشارت وزيرة الخزانة الأميركية جانيت يلين في إحدى مناسبات المجلس الأطلسي الشهر الماضي، فإن هذه النتيجة ليست مرغوبة على الإطلاق، ويتعين على الولايات المتحدة أن تعمل مع الصين لمنع تحققها. لكنها في جملتها التالية مباشرة دافعت يلين عن التدابير التي قد تحبط مثل هذا الجهد.

من منظور يلين، ينبغي للولايات المتحدة أن تكون حريصة على تعميق العلاقات مع الدول التي "تلتزم بقوة بمجموعة من المعايير والقيم المرتبطة بكيفية العمل في الاقتصاد العالمي وكيفية إدارة النظام الاقتصادي العالمي". وهي ترى أن انتقاء شركاء "ملتزمين بمجموعة من القيم والمبادئ الأساسية" هو المفتاح إلى التعاون الفَـعّـال في التصدي للقضايا ذات الأهمية.

لكن أين يترك هذا البلدان التي تتبنى مجموعة مختلفة من القيم والمبادئ؟ كيف يتسنى بقاء البنية المؤسسية العالمية إذا كانت البلدان حريصة على جعل المشاركة المفتوحة مقتصرة على أولئك الذين يرون العالم من ذات المنظور الذي تتبناه؟ إذا استبعد الغرب قوة مثل الصين من ترتيباته المتعددة الأطراف، فماذا قد تفعل الصين سوى قيادة بدائل أخرى؟

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

jose sousa Jun 9, 2022

Any long lasting relation must be based on trust. Hardly trust can survive to a continuous violation of the basic principles which western believes to be the foundations of its civilization: human rights, human dignity, social and political freedom, civil justice, democracy, peaceful coexistence.
A more inclusive and solidary multilateralism and engagement is necessary with emerging markets and developing countries, bridging western values with different cultures and status of development, helping to sustain and reduce the decline of the globalization, the world experienced in the last decades. Its up to China, to correct the trajectory of its internal and external policies truly towards its propagated principles of peaceful existence.
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A G May 27, 2022

I do not think anyone is suggesting to exclude China. It is indeed impossible. Even if it were possible, it would be unreasonable and counterproductive. Of course there are issues that require cooperation: climate change, pandemic management, debt relief...and even supply chains and their effect in the growth of all economies. However, likeminded countries that believe in liberal democracy and a multilateral rules-based order must also take appropriate measures to contain a state that is increasingly totalitarian towards its own citizens and (militarily and diplomatically) agressive towards its neighbours.
- vic lai May 28, 2022
  
  Short of a literal Armageddon-like military conflict between the US and China that engulfs the whole globe one day in the future, the other countries should embrace and welcome the current "warm war" between these two countries, because they can economically free-ride on this war, and gain accordingly.
  ---
  This idea is nothing new, and has happened after WWII.
  During the long cold war between capitalist US and socialist USSR, many other developed and developing countries gained tremendously from that war.
  Through the Marshall Plan, the US helped western Europe to quickly re-industrialize, and through opening up her own markets to the rest of the world, the US also helped many developed and developing countries to become rich or richer through practicing exports-oriented economic growth, like Germany, Japan, Asia's four little dragons and four little tigers, with the help of the IMF, the World Bank, and the WTO.
  ---
  Once the USSR iron curtain had gone with the wind, during the past 30 years it'd no longer been in the interest of the US to keep giving too many sweet candies to the developing countries, and even to her own close allies, and so the globalization tide started to recede like what we observe today.
  ---
  Until recently, that is, when quickly growing China started to attract the attention of the US elites, and hence the latest Biden diplomatic crusade to Asia, to lure those Asian countries to help the US contain China, by giving those countries more sweet candies once again.
  This means, it's always in the interest of the rest of the world to sustain and prolong the current "warm war" between the US and China, making sure that none of them will quickly come out as the eventual winner, so that they can keep receiving more and more sweet candies from both rival countries, and so keep gaining accordingly.
  Those other countries should know this trick, the US knows that they know it, and they know that the US knows that they know it ......
  ---
  - vic lai May 29, 2022
    
    "How to engage with China" is a very tricky question that can't be easily answered by a non-native-Chinese person now living in the West.
    This is not only a geopolitical or economic problem, but is also (more) a cultural or social problem as well.
    ---
    Since
    (i) the Chinese language is the most-difficult-to-learn language in the world (the close second is Arabic),
    (ii) it takes anyone, Chinese or non-Chinese, a very long time also to master the thousands-year-old ancient and modern histories and hence the culture and the main ancient and modern literatures of this country,
    (iii) adding insult to injury, the ancient and modern Chinese languages are two completely different beasts, and even today's Chinese people have had a hard time reading and understanding those ancient Chinese books,
    (iv) many of the current news and internet information about both ancient and today's China produced by the West are highly biased by double standards, or are made so either deliberately or innocently,
    ......
    and so, it's almost impossible for even a genuine Chinese "expert" always living in the West, let alone an ordinary journalist or commentator or layperson in the street there, to fully and objectively understand China, and truly understand what's really going on in that country.
    ---
    The very use of the word "Far East" already means at the very beginning that the people in the West always view their countries as the unique and reasonable center of the world, and so they keep viewing China as a strange, exotic, and far-away country.
    But it's entirely a different story if say a native US person comes to China and starts to live and work there for many years.
    His constant close contact with China in every aspect is almost the only way for him or her to mostly master or understand the true nature of this peculiar country, including her culture, language, and temperament.
    But as an "unfortunate" result of doing so, he or she will have acquired a mainly pro-China attitude then, and so the viewpoint of this person regarding China will no longer be accepted or trusted or even read by the political leaders and elites now living in the US.
    ---
    Which means, almost every day, those leaders and elites in the US are mostly influenced and hypnotized only by the wrong or double-standard biases of those anti-China "experts" now living in their own country or outside of China, who, as I have said before, actually have had no correct idea about China that they are constantly demonizing, or about what's really going on in that country.
    ---
    - vic lai May 29, 2022
      
      Lewis Carroll's "Alice Adventures in Wonderland" + Disney's dramatization = a very good and funny Hollywood film or TV cartoon.
      Equivalently, US's innovation + China's improvement = Ideal.
      ---
      When saying "engage with," I think the author may actually mean "decouple from," say through gradual de-globalization in the coming decades, or through the US's forming a new global trading solar system centered on the US that is excluding China.
      If this is actually the case, then our world will witness much less "ideal" things in the future generations, simply because, in general, the West is particularly good at innovation, while the East is much better at making further improvements to the new inventions.
      ---
      If, and this is a big if, only the country which can truly and persistently innovate can be the sustained global leader of the world, then the US has nothing to fear about the quick rise of China in the global arena in the coming decades, and so the only thing she has to fear is just fear itself.
      ---
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