chellaney144_Ceng Shou YiNurPhoto via Getty Images_taiwan flag

Спасти Тайвань

Oct 11, 2021 Brahma Chellaney

НЬЮ-ДЕЛИ – Силовой экспансионизм Китая, похоже, начинает принимать опасные обороты – самые опасные на сегодня. Рекордное число китайских военных самолётов недавно вторглись в тайваньскую «опознавательную зону ПВО», в которой власти острова обладают правом требовать от самолётов самоидентификации. Китайское поигрывание мускулами стало чётким сигналом: эта страна серьёзно настроена поглотить остров и «воссоединить» Китай, потенциально даже силой.

Международное сообщество не жаждет оспаривать китайские претензии, будто Тайвань «всегда был» частью Китая, но эти претензии – в лучшем случае – весьма спорны и опираются на ревизионистское прочтение истории. На протяжении большей части своей истории Тайвань был населён некитайскими народами (малайско-полинезийским племенами) и не имел отношений с Китаем. Географически Тайвань ближе к Филиппинам, чем к материковому Китаю.

Только в XVII веке началась значительная миграция китайцев на Тайвань: её поощряли голландские колониальные власти острова, которым были нужны работники. В течение следующих ста лет количество этнических китайцев на острове так увеличилось, что их стало больше, чем коренных тайваньцев, которых всё чаще лишали имущества, причём нередко насильно. В этот период Тайвань оказался под контролем династии Цин, однако лишь в 1887 году Тайвань был официально объявлен провинцией Китая.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 24 Comments on this article

Jason Jia Oct 18, 2021

Why should the US intervene when it recognizes "One China"?? If Taiwan invades the mainland, do you then think it's OK?
Your argument lack thoughtfulness of a serious writer/thinker: "For most of its history, Taiwan was inhabited by non-Chinese peoples" what kind of statement is that? You can say about that for literally any place on earth by its current inhabitants...For the record, earth is not inhabited by humans, for most of its history. Lame.
- P W Jan 3, 2022
  
  How can you intervene under "One China" policy? Simple, all of the agreements have the stipulation that the disagreement between Taiwan and China must be solved peacefully. Read the articles yourself, this is the basis of the Taiwan Relations Act, "3 communiques", etc. China should be wooing Taiwan, not trying to beat it into submission.
  
  As for the issue about history, the fact is that only a small slice of Taiwan (west side) for a brief amount of time (200 yrs out of 4000 yrs of dynasties) was ever controlled by a Chinese emperor, the last of who, by the way, signed it away to the Japanese in 1895.... and ery importantly, Taiwan has NEVER been controlled by the communist party.
  
  And even if it did have some historical "claim"...well, just about every major country has some historical piece of land that once belonged to it. This is surely not enough to justify war.
  
  Most important points though:
  - Taiwan is also already DE FACTO independent.
  - The people of Taiwan should have their own say about their destinies, just like Quebec, Scotland, Britain etc have all had referendums on their political status.
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Ken MacNeal Oct 17, 2021

Remember Archduke Ferdinand and the start of WWI. Setting up military alliances that commit to the defense of an ally that is attacked, risks seeing diplomatic dominoes falling like then, until armed combat starts. Then political macho, face-saving escalates on both sides to terrible outcomes.
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Neil MacLean Oct 17, 2021

It seems to me that International Cooperation in containing Chinese behaviour is what is most crucial. The US alone has serious credibility problems these days, yet is crucially important, but needs a strong and unified alliance. Where is Japan's role, for example. Taiwan plays a central role in the international semiconductor business which means actual military conflict would hit everyone very hard. Military conflict does need to be avoided with credible deterrence but who can trust the word of the UK these days (not Ireland) or the US ( will the present administration be replaced with one that only knows how to do its own thing, walks away from treaty commitments and prefers demagogues to democracies?). Other powers need to step forward. And when you think about that in real power terms, no wonder Xi is stepping up the pressure.
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Ray B Oct 14, 2021

"This would constitute the biggest threat to world peace in a generation, and the United States change to " World" cannot afford to allow it. I think you get the point. Keep buying your imports from China, which takes the money to build an army that is threatening the world. China has said they will dominate the world and making good progress doing it based on how many world leaders support China. China only needs to treat Taiwan like the US treated Cuba. Surround it and isolate it, no world government will fight for the country….Has any world leader pushed back on China in any meaningful way? The only one who did lost his job because of mean tweets. xué xí nǐ de pǔ tōng huà
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Leto Atreides Oct 14, 2021

China's sabre rattling toward Taiwan is a warning to Taiwan's pro-independence party against inching toward independence. It's no secret that Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wants Taiwan to be independent, and they are using their power to change the education, shut down opposition media, curbing exchanges with China, severing the traditional cultural bonds, and gradually make Taiwan a truly independent country. This goes against the consensus between China and Taiwan before DPP came to power, namely that there is only one China, and both Taiwan and the mainland belong to the same country. How Taiwan and the mainland should be reunited is left to the future. But this common understanding has been broken, which is the source of the rising tensions across the Taiwan straits. If Taiwan returns to the one China consensus, then the risk of China invading Taiwan becomes essentially zero, since the public in mainland China is also happy with the status quo and willing to postpone the question of reunification to the indefinite future. But Taiwan's DPP is breaking that status quo, and China is responding with threats of invasion if DPP continues along this path. The most pragmatic solution that eliminates the risk of war at little cost to all parties is for Taiwan to give up the ambition of becoming an independent country, which could happen by voting DPP out of power. But this solution is never talked about in Western media because Taiwan serve as a tool to drag down China. On the contrary, many commentators and policymakers in the West actively encourage Taiwan to seek de facto independence. What they have in mind is not Taiwan's well-being, but rather to contain China, and they are willing to sacrifice Taiwan for this objective. Same with the author.
- Valerie Weiss Oct 14, 2021
  
  The biggest threat to world peace is if Biden allows us to be drawn into a war with China over this. Let the rest of the industrialized join us in discourse against China's potential takeover. Let the UN help with it. But the fact remains we do have troops in Taiwan right now "training" the Taiwan military and that alone is provocative. World war 3 over Taiwan? That is a very bad option.
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Petey Bee Oct 12, 2021

One grows weary of the incessant saber rattling. Neither US nor China can afford a serious war in Taiwan, because sure as day follows night, the loser would lay waste to the chip factories rather than let the winner gain a monopoly over the world's computers. The result would be global economic devastation. But the big talk will continue, of course.
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David O'Rear Oct 12, 2021

There was a brief time when Taiwan was under Mainland control during the 20th century: between the end of World War II and the founding of the People's Republic. But, as Mao Zedong told Edgar Snow* in the mid-1930s, “We certainly hope Taiwan can be independent!”

*in Red Star Over China
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BEN L. Oct 12, 2021

Save Taiwan? Has Chellaney forgotten China's red line? Is he encouraging The Republic of China (Taiwan) to declare independence and start a war and destroy Taiwan?
- Harsh Ray Oct 12, 2021
  
  China's "red line"? Do the Taiwanese have a right to decide their own future? Or do the people don't matter (either in Taiwan or China) for the Chinese Communist Party?
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- P. Kamath Oct 12, 2021
  
  Ben: Any hot war with Taiwan will get Communist China bloodied too. It will create world wide repercussions in trade, international political scene and will not be limited to just two parties lasting for only limited time.
  
  Here is one scenario! That “little “ Taiwan as viewed with contempt by Communist China, manufactures considerable number of semiconductor chips used in world wide automobile production and everyone will be hit hard economically. South China Sea will be full of naval vessels and fighter planes ready for a fight. US will definitely throw its hat in the ring and hot conflict will go out of control! It won’t be a pretty sight for anybody!
  
  You know Communist Chinese are no supermen. And don’t expect outsiders to prostrate either! The Chinese know it🤫!
  - BEN L. Oct 12, 2021
    
    A war over Taiwan will involve US and for US to win the war, it must attack China mainland bases, forcing China to attack the bases in Guam, and then the US mainland in retaliation. This may eventually lead to the use of nuclear weapons. The radioactive fallout will then envelope the world and the death of everyone, including you and me. That is the scenario we want to avoid and we have to avoid.
    - P. Kamath Oct 12, 2021
      
      Agree with you 100% . There is no winner in a nuclear war where exchange of nukes would take place. So why do you think then the Chinese would provoke, or risk their neck in such a doomsday scenario?That’s why all this posturing and all that show-off! The Chinese are very smart not dumb now or two thousand years ago. (So also others in outside world too! ). Their strategists have read and digested Sun Tzu’s writings written/spoken words extremely well! It is a remarkable thesis of a brilliant military strategist of China. His ideas are applicable even today’s events.
      
      In the mean time Chinese will continue with their trade blitz! And soon you will be buying groceries in Walmart/Costco , shipped from China.
      - BEN L. Oct 14, 2021
        
        If you know the hundred years of humiliation in the history of China, the Opium War, the invasion of China by the Japanese Imperial Army, the Nanking Massacre, or Taiwan as the unfinish civil war between the Communist and the Nationalist, then you will understand China's red lines.
        
        P W Jan 3, 2022
        
        It's strange for you to lump civil war in the same category as invasions/incursions by foreign powers. As for civil wars...countries split apart all the time. The US became it's own country after fighting a war w Britain...and the French and others helped. Countless other examples...
        Taiwan has already been split for 72 year and counting and has already evolved very differently. It also has a considerable and modern military.
        
        Just because China is bigger doesn't make it righter.
        
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Harsh Ray Oct 11, 2021

Instead of seeking to intimidate and absorb Taiwan, China would do well to learn from small Taiwan how to build a more harmonious society, with public accountability, strong civil society and environmental protection.
- Jason Jia Oct 18, 2021
  
  You clearly have not been to China. China is way more harmonious than most Western countries, which are now torn apart by popularism and wealth inequality. It's nice to be in your own bubble, but it aint real...
  - P W Jan 3, 2022
    
    "harmony" achieved through authoritarianism, including such tools as censorship, total monitoring, social credit schemes, "re-education" camps and more? Sure, the Soviets were, and the current dictatorships are "harmonious"....but mainly because they don't have a choice.
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Harsh Ray Oct 11, 2021

The United States needs to get its act together before it is too late to save Taiwan. Like Hitler, Xi's expansionism is unstoppable until he tastes major defeat.
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