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Economics

西方制裁会改变全球金融体系吗？

Apr 28, 2022 Howard Davies

发自伦敦—在直面俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的恐惧并认识到可供选择的军事手段有限之后，西方政府顺理成章地开始动用其经济和金融武器。虽说这种制裁以前也曾用在其他不守规矩的国家身上，也取得了不同程度的成功，但其强度完全无法与当前施加在俄罗斯身上的相提并论。

值得注意的是，美国及其盟友没收了俄罗斯中央银行的大部分外汇储备，并切断了一些俄罗斯银行进入SWIFT国际交易金融电文系统的路径。全世界都学到了一个新词——“deswifting”（去SWIFT化），而金融系统也已经被前所未有地武器化。

现在想要评估对俄制裁的影响还为时过早，也没有迹象表明此举对普京政权或其政策产生了决定性影响，但对俄罗斯经济的长期损害可能将是相当大的。

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vic lai Apr 28, 2022

Whether the western sanctions will change the global financial system in the future, depends both on the current intention (or ambition) of the Russian and Chinese top leaders and on their knowledge about the nature of a global internationalized currency.
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If only little is being done, like Russia's current insistence on the use of ruble alone as both the unit of account and the medium of exchange for the natural gas (and other resource) transaction between the EU and Russia, the global financial system won't be much affected.
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If much more are being done, like Russia's (and China's) developing much further her country's central government treasury market, FX market, commodity market, stock market, and money market (including the forward market, repo market, derivative market), improving the banking system, and strengthening their domestic legal system, thereby enabling the Russian ruble to become also a reliable store of value and standard for deferred payment in international interactions, inducing the EU countries and many other foreign countries to accumulate rubles as part of the FX reserves of their central banks in the coming years, in direct competition with the US dollar, then the future global financial system will be much affected, and may transform from Bretton woods II to BW III much more easily in the coming decades.
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Today, contrary to popular opinion, too much credit has been given to the chairperson of Russia's central bank, simply because, when the internationalization of the ruble is concerned, "so little" has been done by her (and her boss) so far.
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- vic lai Apr 29, 2022
  
  I think, CBDC digital ruble, now being planned by the Bank of Russia (while banning cryptocurrencies in Russia at the same time), just caters to the unit of account cum medium of exchange function of the ruble as one of the world's potential international currencies, like China's own CBDC digital yuan does.
  If no new innovations such as digital ruble treasury bills or bonds or something similar are considered and propagated by the BOR at the same time, the other arguably even more important aspect of an important international currency ------- the store of value cum standard for deferred payment function ------ is still missing, meaning that the vitally important job of ruble internationalization is only half done, and the transition from BW II to BW III of the global monetary system will be further delayed or even impossible.
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  It's even better if Russia could, like today's US, has balance-of-payment deficits year-in and year-out, with little or no capital control, so that the international environment for the ruble acting as one of the world's important reserve currencies can be realized.
  Same for China's yuan.
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  - vic lai Apr 30, 2022
    
    Why does the EU "foolishly" insist on keeping sanctioning Russia, when she is fully aware that doing so will significantly bid up the energy and food prices in western Europe ?
    Why doesn't Russia finish the war in a short period of time but instead chooses to prolong it ?
    America seems to be standing to gain from this prolonged military conflict.
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    The longer the war lasts, the longer and more serious is the inflationary pressure in America (and elsewhere), thereby forcing the US Fed, or giving the Fed a legitimate excuse, to "suicidally" prop up the interest rates in the country, and so popping the country's bond-stock-housing market bubbles all at the same time, giving rise to another prolonged balance-sheet economic recession and hence secular stagnation in America as a result.
    Russia's demand for the EU to pay in rubles when the EU buys natural gas from Russia also facilitates the transition of the global monetary system from BW II to BW III, when many other similar resource-exporting countries will require their importing countries to also pay in their own currencies, and when more and more effective OPEC+-like cartels will be formed and enforced in the future.
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    It's said on the internet that the current Ukraine War has been a cryptic attempt by both Russia and the EU to try to dethrone the US Dollar in the global monetary system !
    America beware.
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