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Economics

Les sanctions occidentales vont-elles changer le système financier mondial ?

Apr 28, 2022 Howard Davies

LONDRES – Confrontés aux horreurs de l'invasion de l'Ukraine par la Russie, ainsi qu'aux rares options militaires dont ils disposent, les gouvernements occidentaux ont naturellement déployé leur arsenal économique et financier. Ce n'est pas la première fois que des sanctions de ce genre sont imposées à des pays qui se sont perdus en chemin, même si elles ont connu un succès variable. Pourtant, jamais ces sanctions n'ont eu la même mesure que celles imposées à ce jour contre la Russie.

Les États-Unis et leurs alliés ont notamment saisi une grande partie des réserves de change de la banque centrale russe et ont coupé l'accès de certaines banques russes au système de transactions internationales SWIFT. Le monde a appris un nouveau mot – « déswiftage » – et le système financier a été transformé comme jamais auparavant en une arme.

Il est encore trop tôt pour évaluer l'impact des sanctions contre la Russie : il n'y a pas encore de signe d'effet décisif sur le régime du président Vladimir Poutine ni sur ses politiques. Mais les dégâts à long terme sur l'économie russe seront probablement considérables.

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vic lai Apr 28, 2022

Whether the western sanctions will change the global financial system in the future, depends both on the current intention (or ambition) of the Russian and Chinese top leaders and on their knowledge about the nature of a global internationalized currency.
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If only little is being done, like Russia's current insistence on the use of ruble alone as both the unit of account and the medium of exchange for the natural gas (and other resource) transaction between the EU and Russia, the global financial system won't be much affected.
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If much more are being done, like Russia's (and China's) developing much further her country's central government treasury market, FX market, commodity market, stock market, and money market (including the forward market, repo market, derivative market), improving the banking system, and strengthening their domestic legal system, thereby enabling the Russian ruble to become also a reliable store of value and standard for deferred payment in international interactions, inducing the EU countries and many other foreign countries to accumulate rubles as part of the FX reserves of their central banks in the coming years, in direct competition with the US dollar, then the future global financial system will be much affected, and may transform from Bretton woods II to BW III much more easily in the coming decades.
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Today, contrary to popular opinion, too much credit has been given to the chairperson of Russia's central bank, simply because, when the internationalization of the ruble is concerned, "so little" has been done by her (and her boss) so far.
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- vic lai Apr 29, 2022
  
  I think, CBDC digital ruble, now being planned by the Bank of Russia (while banning cryptocurrencies in Russia at the same time), just caters to the unit of account cum medium of exchange function of the ruble as one of the world's potential international currencies, like China's own CBDC digital yuan does.
  If no new innovations such as digital ruble treasury bills or bonds or something similar are considered and propagated by the BOR at the same time, the other arguably even more important aspect of an important international currency ------- the store of value cum standard for deferred payment function ------ is still missing, meaning that the vitally important job of ruble internationalization is only half done, and the transition from BW II to BW III of the global monetary system will be further delayed or even impossible.
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  It's even better if Russia could, like today's US, has balance-of-payment deficits year-in and year-out, with little or no capital control, so that the international environment for the ruble acting as one of the world's important reserve currencies can be realized.
  Same for China's yuan.
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  - vic lai Apr 30, 2022
    
    Why does the EU "foolishly" insist on keeping sanctioning Russia, when she is fully aware that doing so will significantly bid up the energy and food prices in western Europe ?
    Why doesn't Russia finish the war in a short period of time but instead chooses to prolong it ?
    America seems to be standing to gain from this prolonged military conflict.
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    The longer the war lasts, the longer and more serious is the inflationary pressure in America (and elsewhere), thereby forcing the US Fed, or giving the Fed a legitimate excuse, to "suicidally" prop up the interest rates in the country, and so popping the country's bond-stock-housing market bubbles all at the same time, giving rise to another prolonged balance-sheet economic recession and hence secular stagnation in America as a result.
    Russia's demand for the EU to pay in rubles when the EU buys natural gas from Russia also facilitates the transition of the global monetary system from BW II to BW III, when many other similar resource-exporting countries will require their importing countries to also pay in their own currencies, and when more and more effective OPEC+-like cartels will be formed and enforced in the future.
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    It's said on the internet that the current Ukraine War has been a cryptic attempt by both Russia and the EU to try to dethrone the US Dollar in the global monetary system !
    America beware.
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Les sanctions occidentales vont-elles changer le système financier mondial ?

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