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If Russia Had Won

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression has been a massive strategic failure, and it is bound to get even worse for him. Still, to appreciate what was and still is at stake, it is worth considering an alternative scenario in which the Kremlin’s “special military operation” had worked.

STOCKHOLM – Russian President Vladimir Putin has not met any of the strategic objectives that he alluded to when he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine one year ago. In fact, no reasonable person can deny that the war has been a complete debacle for Russia.

Still, it is worth considering the counterfactual. What if Russian forces had not bungled the invasion? Where would we be now if the Ukrainian resistance had collapsed, or if the West had responded not with unity but with confusion and disarray?

Through quick, decisive action by special forces – and perhaps with the help of collaborators on the ground – Russia would have gained control of Kyiv within a day or two, proceeded to install a puppet government, and held victory parades. In this scenario, Ukraine’s duly elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, most likely would have been murdered by Russian special forces or incarcerated after a swift trial. At best, he would be leading a government in exile from Warsaw or somewhere else.

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