woods49_Kent Nishimura Los Angeles Times via Getty Images_ajay banga

Economics

مُذكِرة إلى رئيس البنك الدولي القادم

Mar 2, 2023 Ngaire Woods

أوكسفورد ـ سيعمد البنك الدولي قريباً إلى اختيار رئيسه الجديد. وفي حين يُواجه العالم مجموعة من الأزمات المتعلقة بالمناخ والديون والطاقة والأمن، يأتي تغيير القيادة في لحظة محورية بالنسبة للمؤسسة. يمكن لأي قائد أكثر نشاطًا أن يضع البنك في مركز يسمح له بمساعدة البلدان التي تمر بأزمات، والمساهمة في مكافحة تغير المناخ، وتسهيل التعاون بين الولايات المتحدة والصين، على الرغم من التنافس المتصاعد بينهما. ولكن للقيام بذلك، يتعين على الرئيس الجديد تجنب المصائد التي وقع فيها أسلافه ذوي النوايا الحسنة.

لقد تحرك سباق القيادة بسرعة. بعد أسبوع من إعلان الرئيس الحالي ديفيد مالباس في 15 فبراير/شباط تنحيه عن منصبه، أعلن المجلس التنفيذي للبنك الدولي قبول الترشيحات حتى 29 مارس/آذار وحث البلدان على ترشيح النساء. ولكن في غضون يوم واحد من صدور بيان المجلس، أعلنت الولايات المتحدة عن قرارها بترشيح أجاي بانجا، مما أنهى فعليًا المنافسة الحقيقية، وذلك لأن كل رؤساء للبنك الدولي السابقين كانوا مرشحي الولايات المتحدة (وعلى نحو مماثل، كان المدير العام لصندوق النقد الدولي دائمًا مُرشحًا أوروبيًا).

ومن المؤكد أن بانجا مؤهل للفوز بهذا المنصب. وبصفته الرئيس التنفيذي السابق لشركة ماستركارد للخدمات المالية، يتمتع بانجا بخبرة في إدارة الشركات العالمية والعمل مع موظفين يقدمون الخدمات في جميع أنحاء العالم. فقد عمل أيضًا في مجال التمويل الأصغر وعمل مستشارًا لنائبة الرئيس الأمريكي كامالا هاريس.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 2 Comments on this article

Joe Ryan Mar 8, 2023

"sclerotic state" = "having a proven, durable framework"?
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Dawood Mamoon Mar 6, 2023

Looking forward to Ajay Banga becoming the President of the World Bank. What should be the ideal development recipe that can address security, debt and climate crises? For security to unravel for the benefit of common citizens of developing countries, one can start from improving educational levels within developing countries with more job opportunities and an effective redistribution. Here I am reminded of my PhD thesis that empirically and theoretically discuss the determinants of economic growth and Redistribution whereas approximating those determinants with well-known World Bank data set on institutional development by Kaufman et al. So I had Rule of Law, Control for Corruption, Government Effectiveness, Political Stability and Regulatory Quality to measure economic, political, legal, regulatory institutions. Then the robustness was derived through multistage least square where instruments were used to explain these institutional measures whereby the instruments were developed by Economists like Dani Rodrik, Acemoglu, Frankel Romer etc. To measure globalization many trade policy variables were used.

My research suggested that good regulation is by far the most effective tool to achieve long run growth and more effective than rule of law. Whereas Rule of Law is more effective if redistribution is the prime objective. Redistribution and its need specially arise due to patterns of international trade that favor rich countries as well as richer within a country. Thereby within country inequality had been attributed to processes of trade. Ajay Banga would have good idea about early Indian trade policy that helped develop an industrial base for the country to benefit from globalization after Manmohan Singh liberalized Indian economy in mid 1990s. India also has far better rule of law in the region and it is traditionally a politically stable nation due to its historic precedence and adherence to democratic values.

This means to confirm economic security for developing countries, both redistribution and economic growth should happen. In other words, inclusive economic growth should be the mantra. But the question remains how to go about it?

Without developing industrial clusters within developing countries, pro growth strategies may not work. However an industrial cluster should be environmentally friendly and thereby innovation needs to be promoted where industrial clusters are developed with state of the art new technologies following the process of creative destruction. Here universities in developing countries would play a key role and thereby World Bank needs to bring its focus towards both Higher Education and primary and secondary education.

Here Brad DeLong's, Algorithm generation may as well be the solution then a problem as he mentions in his PS article published recently. Khan's academy is the future and virtual education needs to be promoted more than traditional means to education. New methods to ensure quality in distant learning needs to be developed.

Developing countries should find themselves building a future that adheres to the need of green economy by developing culture of scientific innovation. High productivity achieved thereby would promote economic growth that would help ease the debted ness.

And probably the most important agenda for Ajay Banga should be to promote cooperation between countries through international trade and common social and political values. Thereby strategies that promote peace within multi ethnic societies in developing countries should be the priority agenda for the World Bank. Similarly, countries going to war is no good for neither environment and the economy and thereby serious efforts need to be made to mitigate intra country conflicts for example in case of China and the US, or Pakistan and India.

Here I should mention again that educated populations find it more convenient to be part of the global culture and find themselves comfortable with modern values. Thereby based on an assumption that new technologies adhere to climate crises and are mostly green technologies whereas the direction of research is directed towards newly developed green technologies, economically empowered generations within developing countries should then be part of a new global future that marks economic development as an inclusive phenomenon.

Furthermore the educated populations should be reached out by virtual modes of learning as well as traditional.

If redistribution and economic growth adheres to climate resilience methods of production and consumption both security and climate issues are well addressed while economic growth would itself ensures a smooth path out of indebtedness.
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