With recent landmark legislation to support decarbonization and innovation, the United States is making up for lost time after its failed 40-year experiment with neoliberalism. But if it is serious about embracing a new paradigm, it will need to do more to help bring the rest of the world along.
explains how to minimize the political risks of new spending packages in the US and Europe.
What would a second Donald Trump presidency mean for US foreign policy and the world? While the man himself is unpredictable, his first term and his behavior since losing re-election in 2020 offer plenty of clues, none of which will be comforting to America's allies.
considers the implications of the 2024 presidential election for America's foreign policy and global standing.
发自芝加哥—在新型冠状病毒的肆虐之下,各发达经济体政府纷纷打开了自家金库去支持家庭和小型企业,许多国家的支出规模相当于GDP的15~20%。如今许多发达国家的累积负债水平已超过其GDP总量;平均而言,政府债务占GDP的比重已接近二战后的高点。
但即便如此,按照奥利维尔·布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)和其他经济学家的说法,发达经济体依然有能力在低利率水平下承担更多的债务。根据国际货币基金组织数据进行的计算表明,在本次疫情发生之前的二十年中,尽管债务相对GDP比率增加了20%以上,但这些国家的主权利息支付金额都从GDP的3%以上降到了2%左右。此外由于许多新发行主权债务如今都是负利率,额外借贷似乎还能进一步减少利息支出。
那么在这个利率超低的奇异世界中还存在哪些对政府借贷的限制?那些现代货币理论倡导者的答案是不存在限制,至少对于以本国货币发行债务并具备多余产能的国家来说不存在。毕竟中央银行可以直接印刷钞票来偿还到期债务,只要存在相当规模的失业就不会导致通货膨胀。难怪现代货币理论已成为了那些主张用政府支出来缓解所有问题的政客们的首选理念。
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