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The Flight of the Inflation Hawks

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Raghuram G. Rajan, Joseph E. Stiglitz, James K. Galbraith, Lucrezia Reichlin

Though the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike of 2023 is smaller than those that preceded it, policymakers have signaled that more increases are on the way, despite slowing price growth. But there is good reason to doubt the utility – and fear the consequences – of continued rate hikes, on both sides of the Atlantic.

  1. BQ china india Oleksii Liskonih via Getty Images

    PS Commentators Respond: Could the “Chinese Century” Belong to India?

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    Pranab Bardhan, Brahma Chellaney, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Yi Fuxian

    From demographics to trade to GDP growth, China is currently struggling precisely where India seems to be thriving. At a time when the global economy’s center of gravity is shifting to Asia, we asked PS commentators whether India’s rising star will soon outshine China’s.

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    A Global Debt Explosion?

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    Nouriel Roubini, Kenneth Rogoff, José Antonio Ocampo, Anne O. Krueger, Dani Rodrik, Reza Baqir, Ishac Diwan

    The world is buckling under the weight of its debts. With interest rates – and thus debt-servicing costs – set to continue to rise, and global growth unlikely to pick up any time soon, the risk of crisis is mounting in developed and developing economies alike.

  3. BQ - trumpism Kent Nishimura / Contributor via Getty Images

    PS Commentators Respond: Will Trumpism Win or Wane in 2023?

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    Ruth Ben-Ghiat, Ian Buruma, Reed Galen, Alex Hinton

    As Donald Trump prepares for his 2024 presidential run, Republican Party extremists have been making their presence known in Congress, not least by repeatedly blocking their own party’s choice for Speaker of the US House of Representatives. As a year of pre-election political jockeying begins, we asked PS commentators to assess whether Trump can maintain his hold on the Republican base.

  4. BP – Sick China SOPA Images / Contributor via Getty Images

    The Sick Man of Asia

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    Joschka Fischer, Nancy Qian, Shang-Jin Wei, Stephen S. Roach, Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

    The rapid removal of zero-COVID restrictions in China has not only fueled a massive surge in infections; it has also generated precisely the kinds of economic headwinds it was supposed to ease. Yet China’s problems extend well beyond the jarring exit from its draconian pandemic-control policy, and doubts about its leaders’ ability to overcome them are mounting.

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  6. BQ - 2023 crisis NurPhoto / Contributor via Getty Images

    Will 2023 Be a Year of Economic Crisis?

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    Anat Admati, Jim O'Neill, Eswar Prasad

    Just when the world saw a glimmer of light at the end of the pandemic tunnel, Russia launched its war against Ukraine, stoking inflation and impeding economic recovery in developed and developing countries alike. As 2022 ends, we asked PS commentators whether the global economy’s prospects are set to go from bad to worse in the coming year.

  7. BP - china protests Kevin Frayer / Stringer via Getty Images

    The Zero-COVID Revolution?

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    Shang-Jin Wei, Qian Liu, Minxin Pei, S. Alex Yang, Angela Huyue Zhang, Nancy Qian, Yi Fuxian

    After tens of thousands of Chinese took to the streets in cities throughout the country, China’s government has begun to loosen pandemic restrictions. But, while an exit from the controversial zero-COVID policy was long overdue, the path ahead is strewn with pitfalls, and hopes for a sustained wave of Chinese popular resistance are likely misplaced.

  8. BP - ftx NurPhoto / Contributor via Getty Images

    The Crypto Emperor’s New Clothes

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    Harold James, Peter Singer, Andrés Velasco, Kenneth Rogoff, Jonathan Levy

    The collapse of several crypto platforms this year – including the spectacular crash of the second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, FTX – has raised fundamental questions about the credibility of a digital innovation once hailed as the key to democratizing finance. Has crypto finally been exposed as a scam, or will a new, stronger crypto industry emerge from the current turmoil?

  9. BQ – West Give in to Russia NurPhoto / Contributor via Getty Images

    Will the West Give in to Russia?

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    Shlomo Ben-Ami, Simon Johnson, Salome Samadashvili, Charles Tannock

    From soaring inflation to a deepening energy crisis, the United States and Europe are facing no shortage of economic challenges, and Russia’s war against Ukraine – and the sanctions imposed in response to it – bears much of the blame. As Russia launches new rounds of missile attacks, we asked PS commentators what the West should be doing for Ukraine – and how likely it is to do it.

  10. bildt104_Doug MillsPoolGetty Images_semiconductors Doug Mills/Pool/Getty Images

    Thucydides’s Trade Trap

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    Dani Rodrik, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Carl Bildt, Sergei Guriev, Nouriel Roubini

    When it comes to trade policy, the West has lately been embracing the adage, “Keep your friends close.” But will its failure to heed the maxim’s ironic kicker – “and keep your enemies closer” – ultimately hurt their economies, undermine their global standing, and perhaps most important, make war with China more likely?

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    What Do the Midterms Mean?

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    Daron Acemoglu, Jeffrey Frankel, Teresa Ghilarducci, Anne-Marie Slaughter

    Though US Republicans performed much worse than expected in this week’s midterm elections, they may yet secure a thin majority in the House of Representatives, with control of the Senate likely to be decided in a runoff in Georgia in December. At a time of deep polarization, soaring inflation, and heightened geopolitical tensions, we asked PS commentators what the election results mean for the US and the world.

  12. GettyImages-1436691411 Jeff J Mitchell / Staff via Getty Images

    Is Sunak “the One” for the UK?

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    Diane Coyle, Antara Haldar, Harold James, Anatole Kaletsky

    Britain’s new prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has vowed to lead the economy out of crisis and restore public trust in government. Given the scale of the challenges ahead – and that Sunak is Britain’s third prime minister in as many months – we asked PS commentators whether he can deliver.

  13. GettyImages-1244189275 Future Publishing / Contributor via Getty Images

    Emperor Xi

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    Minxin Pei, Chris Patten, Jim O'Neill, Stephen S. Roach, Javier Solana

    In many ways, the just-concluded 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China unfolded exactly as expected: President Xi Jinping touted the CPC’s achievements, packed the powerful Politburo Standing Committee with loyalists, and secured a norm-breaking third term as the Party’s general secretary. But the predictability of these developments does not make them any less momentous – and potentially dangerous – for China and the world.

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