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    The ECB's Existential Dilemma

    Jürgen Stark, et al.

    For years, the European Central Bank has been succumbing to political interests and pursuing objectives beyond the scope of its primary mandate: maintaining price stability. But now that inflationary pressures are building, the ECB’s credibility is on the line.

     warns that the European Central Bank’s politicization will catch up to it in the new inflationary environment.
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    Why Did Almost Nobody See Inflation Coming?

    Jason Furman

    Forecasting inflation is a staple of macroeconomic modeling, yet virtually all economists’ predictions for the United States in 2021 were way off the mark. This dismal performance reflected a collective failure to take economic models seriously enough, as well as other analytical shortcomings.

     ascribes near-universal forecasting errors in 2021 to not taking economic models seriously enough.
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Why Kazakhstan Matters

Featured in this Big Picture
  1. Djoomart Otorbaev Djoomart Otorbaev ,
  2. Nargis Kassenova Nargis Kassenova ,
  3. Sławomir Sierakowski Sławomir Sierakowski ,
  4. Nina L. Khrushcheva Nina L. Khrushcheva

Following several days of violent nationwide protests, the Kazakh authorities, with the help of Russian-led forces, appear to have restored order. For the United States and China, the episode has highlighted the strategic importance of this resource-rich Central Asian country, as well as the scope of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s imperial ambitions.

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America, One Year On

Featured in this Big Picture
  1. Michael Lind,
  2. J. Bradford DeLong,
  3. Elizabeth Drew,
  4. Jan-Werner Mueller,
  5. Cynthia Miller-Idriss,
  6. Elmira Bayrasli,
  7. James K. Galbraith,
  8. Harold James

Twelve months after an insurrectionist right-wing mob incited by then-President Donald Trump stormed and occupied the US Capitol, many Americans fear that deepening polarization could result in a sequel, or worse. In the absence of agreement on basic facts and rules of political engagement, can further violence and threats to democracy be prevented?

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Happy New Year?

Featured in this Big Picture
  1. Bill Emmott,
  2. Ngaire Woods,
  3. Jim O'Neill,
  4. Nouriel Roubini,
  5. Elif Shafak

The world will enter 2022 still grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. Developing effective policy responses to these challenges is essential to passing the biggest global test of all: rekindling a sense of public trust and optimism.

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