Another Middle East Meltdown?

May 11, 2018

The escalating conflict between Israel and Iranian forces stationed in Syria could be a harbinger for a wider war in the Middle East. Making matters worse, by abandoning the nuclear deal with Iran, the United States has left its European allies in the lurch, with no strategy to restore stability to the region.

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Javier Solana
Ana Palacio
Mark Leonard
Djavad Salehi-Isfahani

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M Henri Day May 20, 2018

«Trump believes that, by withdrawing from the JCPOA, he can pressure Iran to agree to a new, more comprehensive deal that would cover not just the country’s nuclear program, but also its ballistic missile tests, provocative regional behavior, and human-rights violations.» I suppose one should be inured by this time, but I must confess that I am always flabbergasted to see people like Ms Palacio referring to Iran's «provocative regional behaviour». Surely she is aware that compared to the United States (and its «allies», Israel and Saudi Arabia), Iran's behaviour in Southwest Asia is the epitome of moderation ? But of course, «provocative behaviour» on the part of the United States is hardly confined to Southwest Asia, but is a staple of international affairs 'round the world. Perhaps this is the distinction - between regional and global behaviour, that Ms Palacio wishes to convey ?...

Henri
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j. von Hettlingen May 14, 2018

There are reasons to worry about the clashes between Iran and Israel in Syria that could morph into an all-out war. Neither Iran nor Israel will benefit from it, adding more fuel to the fire. While Iran might lie low and seek to avoid escalating the conflict with Isreal, the region’s military superpower, Benjamin Netanyahu could take advantage of Tehran’s weakness and step up airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.
There could be a plot between Trump and Netanyahu to bring about a regime change in Iran. Trump has scuttled the nuclear deal, re-imposed sanctions that aim to make lives even more difficult for ordinary Iranians, forcing them to rise up against the regime. Meanwhile Israel seeks to decimate Iran’s millitary capabilities in Syria. This would only strengthen Russia’s position in Syria. But Putin does not want to shoulder the costs of propping up the Assad regime alone.
Netanyahu was in Moscow last week to commemorate the Nazi defeat in World War II. He seeks to foster a productive personal relationship with Putin to advance geopolitical gains. This has included refusing to criticise the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 or its bombings of Syrian civilians. Just A few hours after their meeting, Israel – with Putin’s approval – launched a wave of attacks against Iranian targets in Syria. Immediately the oil market saw a price spike, which no doubt would boost Russia’s export revenues.
While Putin sees Iran and the Hezbollah as useful allies to keep the US forces at bay in Syria, he also fears Iran’s plans to establish itself on the Israeli border. This could pose a threat to Russia’s interests, as it will escalate conflict that will ultimately weaken the Assad regime, increase its dependence on Iran and sour Moscow’s relations with Israel. Iran and Russia have had a history of regional rivalry and and their cooperation in Syria may well be a marriage of convenience.
Israel’s strategy is mainly security – it is surrounded by hostile neighbours. Concerned by the permanent stationing of Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed troops on its border, Israel has conducted strikes inside Syria many times. A retaliation from Tehran would only encourage Israel to act decisively by wiping out Iran’s entire military infrastructure in Syria. As much as Netanyahu abhors Iran, he doesn’t want any Sunni Arab state to dominate the region. Yet miscalculations could spark a wider conflict.
Abandoning the nuclear deal with Iran, Trump has left European allies in the lurch, with no strategy to restore stability to the region. While he constantly complains about how “disastrous” the deal is, he has no idea about the nature of the JCPOA. He believes that dismantling it, he could force Iran to “agree to a new, more comprehensive deal that would cover not just the country’s nuclear program, but also its ballistic missile tests, provocative regional behavior, and human-rights violations. But, as America’s partners and allies have noted, this is a highly risky gambit – one that contradicts the underlying logic of the deal.”
Ana Palacio points out that “the JCPOA was never supposed to be a one-off ‘transaction.’ Instead, it was conceived as the first step in a long negotiation process.” She says the word “comprehensive” in its official title must have been lost in translation among critics and opponents. The deal “refers to the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions and the verification measures to ensure compliance. It did not indicate that the deal amounted to a comprehensive solution to all of the international community’s disagreements with Iran.”
Like the Paris Climate Change Agreement, the JCPOA with its sunset clauses etc. requires further negotiations and agreements. “Such arrangements will often be ad hoc and flexible, rather than traditional binding deals, and will almost never be comprehensive. They will be relatively narrowly focused and designed to lay the groundwork for further progress.” But opponents miss the point – they want to put everything on the table, while ignoring the reality that we live in a “fast changing world” and that some can only be put on the table as time goes by. Trump and his team are a bunch of impetuous hawks, who lack qualifications and acumen to implement policies of such historical significance.
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