otorbaev5_Yuji Sakai_Getty Images_central asia

الطريق الأفغاني: ممر آسيا الوسطى نحو الازدهار

Apr 13, 2021 Djoomart Otorbaev

بيشكيك- لأول مرة منذ قرون، أصبح ممكنا الربط بين وسط آسيا وجنوبها بممرات المواصلات ونقل الطاقة الحديثة عبر أفغانستان. وستغير هذه المشاريع، بمجرد اكتمالها، الأمن الأوروبي الآسيوي، وتزيد النشاط الاقتصادي الإقليمي إلى حد كبير، وتحقق، أخيرًا، السلام في أفغانستان؛ بل قد تؤدي إلى إحياء طريق الحرير العظيم.

لهذا، ينبغي أن يكون التقدم في المشاريع التي خُطط لها موضع اهتمام الجيران المؤثرين في المنطقة -روسيا، والصين والهند- والولايات المتحدة التي أنفقت ما لا يقل عن 2 تريليون دولار في أفغانستان على مدار العشرين عامًا الماضية. ولكن معظم دول العالم تنظر إلى آسيا الوسطى على أنها أرض مجهولة، ولم تول اهتمامًا كبيرًا حتى الآن للتطورات المهمة الأخيرة.

في شباط/فبراير، على سبيل المثال، زار وزير الخارجية الأوزبكي، عبد العزيز كاملوف، ثلاث دول في آسيا الوسطى وهي: كازاخستان، وتركمانستان، وطاجيكستان، لكفالة دعمها لمشاريع النقل مع أفغانستان ودول جنوب آسيا. وكان كاميلوف يسافر بناء على طلب من الرئيس الأوزبكي، شوكت ميرزيوييف، الذي سلط الضوء في رسالته التي وجهها إلى برلمان البلاد، في 29 كانون الأول/ديسمبر، على التعاون مع جنوب آسيا وتعزيز السلام في أفغانستان باعتبارهما أولوياته الرئيسية على الصعيد الإقليمي.

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j. von Hettlingen Apr 14, 2021

Djoomart Otorbaev highlights two new mega-projects: CASA-1000 - connecting Central Asia with South Asia - and the TAPI gas pipeline, named after the four countries through which it will pass – Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India. The two would “for the first time in centuries” offer “an opportunity to connect Central and South Asia via modern transport and energy corridors through Afghanistan. Once completed,” they “would transform Eurasian security, significantly increase regional economic activity, and potentially bring peace at last to Afghanistan.”
Due to its geostrategic location between Central Asia and South Asia, Afghanistan borders on three Central Asian countries - Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan - which are further connected with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. Afghanistan will have an important role to play, because it shares ethnic, cultural, linguistic and religious ties with many Central Asian countries. The two projects might at last bring peace to this war-torn country after decades of conflict. They may even “revive the Great Silk Road” in the form of energy.
The author says, Uzbekistan’s Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Kamilov visited three Central Asian countries - Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan - in February, “to secure their support for transport projects with Afghanistan and South Asian countries. Kamilov was traveling at the behest of Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who, in his December 29 message to the country’s parliament, highlighted cooperation with South Asia and promotion of peace in Afghanistan as his main regional priorities.”
Central Asia is among the extremely resource-rich regions on earth awash in coal, oil, gas and various minerals. It explains why it attracts both regional and global attention. On the other hand, its neighbouring countries in South Asia face constant power outages. Their severe energy deficits have severe economic consequences, prompting them to look for feasible solutions. The TAPI gas pipeline is expected to export 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas through an 1800 km long pipeline from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.
According to the author, there were talks about constructing the “Kabul Corridor” - a railway from Termez in Uzbekistan to Peshawar in Pakistan via Mazar-i-Sharif and Kabul in Afghanistan. “The railway could transport up to 20 million tons of cargo per year, and the section from Termez to Mazar-i-Sharif, built by Uzbekistan, is already operational. The remaining 573-kilometer (356-mile) stretch to Peshawar will have to cross the Hindu Kush mountain range, where the passes are more than 3,500 meters (11,483 feet) above sea level.” A daunting task lies ahead of the constructors.
The section of the Mazar-i-Sharif - Kabul stretch - estimated cost: $5 billion - “will be built mainly with borrowed funds. In late December, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan jointly appealed to international financial institutions to support the project. Subject to financing, construction could begin in September this year. The existing highway between Mazar-i-Sharif and Kabul will ensure the delivery of equipment and construction materials, while Uzbekistan and Tajikistan’s power lines to the Afghan capital run along the same route, making it possible to electrify the rail link.”
Upon arrival in Peshawar, “the railway will connect arriving trains with the Pakistani transport system, thereby linking the Central Asian and Eurasian railway networks to those of South Asia and providing access to the Pakistani ports of Karachi, Qasim, and Gwadar. It is estimated that the new railway will reduce goods transportation times from Central Asia to Pakistan from 30 days to 15 and cut transportation costs by 30-35%,” because the Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar route is the shortest one.
The advantage of the Kabul Corridor is that, together with the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan transport corridor, it “will connect four economically powerful Eurasian regions – Europe, China, Russia, and South Asia – via Central Asia.” Due to international sanctions against Iran leaders in Central Asia shun this country. India under a Hindu-nationalist government and an old arch-enemy of Pakistan, has also sought to forge closer trade ties with Central Asian countries, hoping to rely on Afghanistan as its springboard.
The TAPI gas pipeline will run from the Galkynysh gas field in Turkmenistan to the Indian city of Fazilka via Herat and Kandahar in Afghanistan and the Pakistani cities of Quetta and Multan. This reduces any interaction between India and Pakistan. The elephant in the room is the future of Afghanistan and its security. If no power-sharing agreement is reached between the Taliban and other players in Afghanistan, many fear a relapse into chaos, plunging the country once again in another civil war.
The author may well be overly optimistic that the Central Asia would once again become “a world leader in economic development, trade, technology, manufacturing, and intellectual life during the period referred to as its golden age” between 800 to 1100 A.D.. Back then Central Asia was the hub of world culture, contributing significantly to the core civilizations of Europe, the Middle East, and Asia, including China and India. Given rivalry and tensions in the region, a renaissance is unlikely.
- peter van leeuwen Apr 17, 2021
  
  Implementing these promising projects are jeopardized by the recent announcement that the US and its NATO partners will retire from Afghanistan by 9/11 of this year. We might sincerely hope that the situation in Afghanistan after that date will not stall any development..
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