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This trend will likely accelerate over the next few years, as technological innovations enable companies to automate more high-skilled jobs. Tellingly, just days after laying off 10,000 workers, Microsoft announced plans to invest $10 billion in OpenAI, the San-Francisco-based company that developed ChatGPT. The ultimate winners of the war for talent, it seems, will be the machines.
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US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs have triggered a wave of retaliatory measures, setting off a trade war with key partners and raising fears of a global downturn. But while Trump’s protectionism and erratic policy shifts could have far-reaching implications, the greatest victim is likely to be the United States itself.
warns that the new administration’s protectionism resembles the strategy many developing countries once tried.
It took a pandemic and the threat of war to get Germany to dispense with the two taboos – against debt and monetary financing of budgets – that have strangled its governments for decades. Now, it must join the rest of Europe in offering a positive vision of self-sufficiency and an “anti-fascist economic policy.”
welcomes the apparent departure from two policy taboos that have strangled the country's investment.
发自慕尼黑——对人才的争夺在过去近二十年间塑造了世界各地企业的经营和管理方式。由于企业的价值主要来自于其人力资本而非物质资产，一支有才能的员工队伍要比厂房或机器更受青睐。2001年知名管理顾问彼得·德鲁克（Peter Drucker）发表了一篇题为《下一个社会》的文章指出有必要给予他所谓的知识工作者更多自由度，因为本世纪的关键战争是争夺人才的战争。而他几乎是对的。
但与机器不同，人力资本无法被占有。有才华的劳动者经常会离职并带走属于其雇主的价值。多年以来企业通过下放决策过程和给予劳动者更大自主权来应对这一威胁。为了鼓励有才能的员工留下，企业引入了激励性的薪酬和基于股票的补偿方案，希望股权所有权能让经理人在企业的未来发展中共同受益。
换句话说，对人才的赋权成为企业组织自身活动的新模式。因此在过去40年里CEO们的薪酬急剧上升。随着人力资本如今成为美国顶尖收入的主要驱动力，“工作的富人”——而非金融资本家——成为了21世纪的资本家。
我与论文合著者蒂埃里·维蒂埃（Thierry Verdier，巴黎经济学院教授）表明这种深刻的企业性质变化主要是由全球化推动的。随着企业进入新的市场寻找可供雇佣的优秀劳动者，有价值员工更可能被外国竞争者抢走，因而助长了对人才的争夺。为了吸引和留住人力资本，企业开始向表现出色者提供越来越高的工资和更大的决策权。
新的想法在一个竞争日益激烈的环境中变得愈发重要。随着东欧市场在铁幕倒塌后开始开放，众多奥地利和德国企业下放了决策权，鼓励有才华的劳动者去展现主动性并赋予他们更多独立性，特别是在研究和开发新产品方面。
但如今人才争夺战似乎正逐渐偃旗息鼓。这一点在对人力资本的激烈竞争使劳动者对雇主拥有巨大权力的硅谷最为明显。为了吸引潜在雇员并讨好现有队伍，科技企业不得不提供优厚的薪酬待遇、股票期权、横向管理架构、无限制假期，健康休养和慷慨的福利。
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但这些都已成往事了。随着利率上升和增长放缓，硅谷的老板们已经开始通过削减福利和启动大规模裁员来从劳动者手中夺回权力。根据科技企业裁员追踪网站layoffs.fyi汇编的数据，自今年年初以来已有超过16万名科技工作者被解雇。去年又有16.4万人失去工作，其中一半裁员发生在10~12月。
而金融业也在经历类似的转变，因为持续的市场动荡和日益迫近的危机引发了裁员。在经历了20年的人才争夺战后企业显然正在利用当前动荡局面重夺控制权并扭转多年来对管理层的放纵——这给它们留下了一整代养尊处优的劳动者。老板说了算和决策权的重新集中现象似乎已是当今主流。
这一转变是由三个重大事件引发的：首先，新冠疫情和随后的供应链中断加速了去全球化进程。这一趋势可能削弱了对人才的全球竞争，导致了最近大学毕业生工资溢价的下降和意料之外的工资缩减。
第二，随着利率急剧上升推高了资本成本，维持盈利能力更多得取决于紧缩而非新的想法。勒紧裤腰带的做法在集中化的组织结构下更容易实现，因为企业可以利用不同部门之间的协同效应。
第三，ChatGPT以及其他生成性人工智能程序的出现使企业能够将某些管理职能自动化，如面试新员工，检查推荐信，核实身份以及进行健康和安全评估。
This trend will likely accelerate over the next few years, as technological innovations enable companies to automate more high-skilled jobs. Tellingly, just days after laying off 10,000 workers, Microsoft announced plans to invest $10 billion in OpenAI, the San-Francisco-based company that developed ChatGPT. The ultimate winners of the war for talent, it seems, will be the machines.
这一趋势可能会在未来几年间加速，因为技术创新使企业能够实现更多高技能工作的自动化。颇能说明问题的就是微软在裁掉1万名员工后没几天就宣布计划向OpenAI——正是这家位于旧金山的公司开发了ChatGPT——投资100亿美元。由此看来人才争夺战的最终赢家似乎会是机器。