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Politics

الانقسام الديموغرافي الذي يلوح في الأفق بالهند

Dec 16, 2022 Shashi Tharoor

نيودلهي- يبدو ان الهند سوف تنهي عامًا مضطربًا بشكل احتفالي حيث سوف تحتفل بمناسبة مرور 75 عامًا على الاستقلال وبداية رئاستها لمجموعة العشرين. لكن هناك حدث مهم آخر يلوح في الأفق حيث يقدّر خبراء الأمم المتحدة أنه في 14 أبريل 2023 ستتفوق الهند رسميًا على الصين بحيث تصبح الدولة الأكثر تعدادًا للسكان في العالم.

ان هذا ليس بالضرورة سببًا للاحتفال حيث تصل مساحة الصين إلى ما يقرب من 9.6 مليون كيلومتر مربع (3.7 مليون ميل مربع) مقارنة بـمساحة الهند التي تبلغ 3.3 مليون كيلومتر مربع مما يجعل الكثافة السكانية في الهند أعلى بثلاث مرات تقريبًا من الكثافة السكانية في الصين. ومع ذلك وعلى عكس الصين تكافح الهند لإطعام وتعليم ورعاية سكانها البالغ عددهم 1.4 مليار نسمة وعلى الرغم من معدل النمو المذهل فيها على مدى العقود الثلاثة الماضية.

ينطوي النمو السكاني على فرص وتحديات حيث من المتوقع ان يزيد تعداد سكان الهند خلال العقود الأربعة القادمة ليصل الى حوالي 1،7 مليار نسمة وذلك قبل أن ينخفض الى 1،1 مليار نسمة بحلول سنة 2100، ونظرًا الى الانخفاض في معدلات الوفيات والخصوبة فإن نافذة الفرص المتاحة للهند من أجل استخدام نمو القوى العاملة المنتجة فيها لتعزيز التنمية الاقتصادية هي محدودة للغاية.

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0 Comments on this paragraph, 6 Comments on this article

Jan Czaja Dec 19, 2022

Something tells me that India's demographics will not end up as a benefit. China's demographics ended up turning into a dividend due to manufacturing and large amount jobs that this section of economy generated. India never developed manufacturing on China's scale and probably never will. Increased automization and robotization will continue to shrink the share of manufacturing in overall employment and lead to reshoring of jobs to developed countries, rather than offshoring them to countries such as India. As an example, see all the recent economic acts passed by US Congress and their emphasis on manufacturing in US or USMCA area. Due to the forgoing, I just don't see how India will be able to ever fully employee its huge population.
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jagjeet sinha Dec 17, 2022

A MINDSET BEST BURIED
There we go, Gandhi Durbar Economics now wants to protect its ill-gotten Islands of prosperity - created over 65 years of partisan Economics. Over 65 years it has bequeathed an Economic Geography wherein a deliberate design has accumulated wealth in selected pockets. The Marginalisation of the Majority in The Heartlands was unsustainable - so the Congress Party got 3 Lok Sabha seats in The Heartlands while ModiMantra got 300 plus. Instead of modifying its strategy - by an Investments Neutralization Correction policy - the author is now articulating the blatant design that was implicit over 65 years of Marginalisation of The Heartlands. So now the Party wants to ring fence the consequences of its ill-gotten policies, that has resulted in Congress being wiped out of The Heartlands. In 97 % of the seats they contested in U.P. Heartlands, the Gandhi Durbar lost its security deposits. And the "Yuvraj" had to run away to Kerala to get a Lok Sabha seat.
The suggestions contained in this article sound like recommendations for Delhi and Bombay to ring fence the two Islands of Wealth (created over 65 years of Gandhi Durbar) - so that the Heartlands can be isolated and preventing the Marginalised Majority from taking over. Gandhi Durbar Politics has already been demolished - all that is left is the demolition of Gandhi Durbar Economics. At this rate, maybe the only Economic Geography where the Gandhi Durbar can hope to win Lok Sabha Seats is Kerala and Goa and Nagaland. May the Buddha bless them.
- Viswanathan Suresh Dec 23, 2022
  
  Just what exactly are you trying to convey here Sir ?
  - jagjeet sinha Dec 23, 2022
    
    Exactly what I say - not what you may understand.
    
    The "NDTV Mafia" bequeathed an Economic Geography that resulted in Gandhi Durbar Politics being wiped out. "NDTV" Economics has not yet been neutralized - instead of articulating how best to achieve Investment Neutralization fastest, Party Masterminds want to pursue "more of the same". Not realising even "NDTV" ownership has been demolished. Outdated mouthpieces of Dynasty Durbar still berate "The British Empire" only, oblivious of "A Roman Empire" that eviscerated India's Heartlands. The BJP Cowboys strategy got them 300 plus seats from India's Heartlands - whose Marginalisation was Dynasty's blatant legacy.
    
    When your salary depends on misunderstanding, it is stupid to understand even the obvious.
    - Viswanathan Suresh Dec 23, 2022
      
      You think you make yourself clearer Sir ?
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Lawrence Michael Dec 16, 2022

India's problems are manifold. Stashing all under the rug would make for rug tipped mountains. First, the idea of when does the country begin given its morbid obsession with a past that isn't it's. It was born only in 1947 August 15. A day after Pakistan. Obviously riding a fictional past is convenient for crime-terror cartels wanting to pull the wool upon every eye that it seems gullible & idiotic if of other tribes than the crime-terror one where the term state is an oxymoron. Second having vanquished both achievements & accountability with that one stroke of a genius ride of some fictional past, it can expend it's energies - both material & intellectual - in hiding the fact of state failures to first educate it's populace that range from the pre-civil to the uncivil - with the word civil a slick but convenient casualty - including the author here - it can pretend to imagine the rug tipped mountain as some sacred beast that may even be venerated - with normalisation of crime, terror & institutionalised corruption or patent failures of the basic law & order situation. Or worse, any ability for self-governance. The last the more fatal of fears of the so-called 'civil' of the 3rd, 4th worlds and even sixth-seventh worlds: of being ignoramuses with the petty criminal's first contention: innocent until proven guilty because until caught never figures as a fear! Quite a sacrilege given the idea of justice that has the maxim of innocent until proven guilty. Similar mockeries has many Indians even imagine a global normalisation of their own self-delusions. In that - a serious strategic threat to the world. Next one imagines the regions the author talks about - easily the nadir of India. Then comes its BLM variants aka "naxals" & Lalua Yadav's BHURABAL pogrom aficionados. Off the same potboiler psychosocial realities their popular movies record - perhaps often less dramatically than maiming, murder, extortion, rapes etc are done. Thereby the potent threats of unleashing those! On any that differ and if not born in the brothel - where everything is assumed to be on sale!
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الانقسام الديموغرافي الذي يلوح في الأفق بالهند

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