otorbaev7_ Sergei BobylevTASS via Getty Images_biden putin

美俄阿富汗协议？

Jul 28, 2021 Djoomart Otorbaev

比什凯克—据报道，6月16日日内瓦峰会期间，俄罗斯总统普京向美国总统拜登提供了使用俄罗斯在塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦的军事基地协调针对阿富汗的行动的机会。克里姆林宫的动机当然不是利他主义。俄罗斯希望阻止美国在该地区建立自己的基地。但普京的提议很诱人，拜登很可能会想办法接受。

位于俄罗斯和中国之间、面积近乎欧盟的中亚地区也因此重新成为国际头条新闻——再次因为坏消息，再次与阿富汗的暴力和动荡有关。拜登决定从阿富汗撤出剩余的美国军队，以结束这场长达 20 年、使美国损失近2.3万亿美元美元，却未能实现任何目标的战争。分析人士现在警告说，塔利班的持续攻势可能导致全面内战、贩毒激增、大规模移民以及伊斯兰原教旨主义向邻国蔓延。

这场美国领导的战争的结果是灾难性的。根据官方数字，2001 年以来，已有 2,312 名美军在阿富汗丧生，20,666 人受伤。超过 3,800 名美国私人安保承包商丧生。

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j. von Hettlingen Jul 28, 2021

According to Djoomart Otorbaev, the June 16 summit between Biden and Putin in Geneva may not have been fruitless after all - it had yielded “at least one positive result.” Although Biden came with low expectations of improving the US.Russian relations, Putin “made the first move” and “reportedly offered him the use of Russian military bases in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan” for information gathering from Afghanistan, in order to “continue ensuring security” there.
The author says, Putin’s “motives…. are not altruistic. Russia wants to prevent the US from building its own bases” in the region. But it is also worried about the chaos in Afghanistan following a Taliban takeover. The major advances the insurgents have made ahead of the complete withdrawal of US troops is posing a security headache for the Kremlin, which fears refugees may be pushed into its Central Asian backyard and its southern defensive flank destabilised.
In the face of the dilemma the US faces, “Putin’s offer is tempting,” and Biden may well find a way to accept it. “Everyone knows that only Putin can resolve the current impasse….. While the US and Russia had previously agreed on other issues without a presidential meeting, the situation in Afghanistan apparently required a face-to-face discussion.” Biden may have come to realise that “the Kremlin now holds the key to the continued US presence in Afghanistan.”
According to the author, “all of the other issues on the summit’s agenda – cyber espionage, Ukraine, Iran, and Syria – were predictable and yielded no visible breakthroughs.” The US “must now decide whether to cooperate with Russia and its allies in Afghanistan. Putin’s proposal may give America the chance to save face and shore up its shaky international reputation following its hasty withdrawal.” Instead of a physical presence in Afghanistan, the US could deplore drones to monitor the situation there.
There had been no concrete response from the US side to Putin’s offer. However, earlier this month, the Biden administration was in talks with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan about temporarily taking in “up to 10,000” Afghans who had previously worked with US forces and now face threats from the Taliban. The author believes the three Central Asian countries “are likely to refuse the Biden administration’s request.”
While Russia had always seen the US presence in Afghanistan as a thorn in its side, even offering the Taliban bounties to kill US soldiers. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitted recently that the US and NATO alliance withdrawal from Afghanistan made the political and military situation more uncertain, which in turn exacerbated the terrorist threat in the region. Russia, China and other countries in the region have little appetite to foot the security bill for Afghanistan.
The author says, “Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s recent statement about the US-led invasion’s adverse effects on his country, which hosts 2.7 million Afghan refugees, has impressed other Central Asian leaders." As Sergey Lavrov stated bluntly in mid-June, “None of our allies [in Central Asia] have announced their intention to expose their territories and populations to such a risk.”
Ideally, the US and Russia “must aim to ensure a future free of conflict and chaos for Afghanistan’s long-suffering people.” It remains to be seen how serious Putin is in securing peace in this volatile region, while playing his divide-and-rule game there. He has long seen Central Asia as Russia's backyard, watching with wariness how a rising China is competing to increase its sphere of influence in the region. The next Great Power Games unfolded in Afghanistan - the "Graveyard of Empires" - will involve China and Russia.
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