

Though the US Federal Reserve’s first interest-rate hike of 2023 is smaller than those that preceded it, policymakers have signaled that more increases are on the way, despite slowing price growth. But there is good reason to doubt the utility – and fear the consequences – of continued rate hikes, on both sides of the Atlantic.
伦敦—近几个月来,关于停滞、通货膨胀和滞胀的讨论很多,值得质疑普遍的悲观情绪是否合理。虽然我也有同样的忧虑(早就警告这可能是“市场糟糕的一年”),但我开始反思我以前的观点,原因有四个。
首先,我对衰退叙述传播之广感到震惊。几乎每个人似乎都相信发达国家正在走向或已经陷入衰退。我曾多次与商业顾问访谈,他们都想知道“如何为经济衰退做准备”。正如我对其中一个人所说的那样,据我了解从未有过哪次衰退像现在那样被如此信心满满地预测出现。
毕竟,“衰退”这个词之所以如此可怕,主要原因便是衰退通常是出乎意料的。经济预测者往往在它们已经到来之后才看到它们。2007—08 年便是如此(不得不说,那次情况相当独特),新冠疫情之后的 2020 年亦然。然而现在,甚至一些中央银行(即英格兰银行)也公开预测今年晚些时候将出现衰退。是经济预测突然变得更出色了,还是发生了其他事情?
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