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From soaring inflation to a deepening energy crisis, the United States and Europe are facing no shortage of economic challenges, and Russia’s war against Ukraine – and the sanctions imposed in response to it – bears much of the blame. As Russia launches new rounds of missile attacks, we asked PS commentators what the West should be doing for Ukraine – and how likely it is to do it.
伦敦—近几个月来，关于停滞、通货膨胀和滞胀的讨论很多，值得质疑普遍的悲观情绪是否合理。虽然我也有同样的忧虑（早就警告这可能是“市场糟糕的一年”），但我开始反思我以前的观点，原因有四个。
首先，我对衰退叙述传播之广感到震惊。几乎每个人似乎都相信发达国家正在走向或已经陷入衰退。我曾多次与商业顾问访谈，他们都想知道“如何为经济衰退做准备”。正如我对其中一个人所说的那样，据我了解从未有过哪次衰退像现在那样被如此信心满满地预测出现。
毕竟，“衰退”这个词之所以如此可怕，主要原因便是衰退通常是出乎意料的。经济预测者往往在它们已经到来之后才看到它们。2007—08 年便是如此（不得不说，那次情况相当独特），新冠疫情之后的 2020 年亦然。然而现在，甚至一些中央银行（即英格兰银行）也公开预测今年晚些时候将出现衰退。是经济预测突然变得更出色了，还是发生了其他事情？
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