galbraith14_Allen J. Schaben Los Angeles Times via Getty Images_LAport

Economics

全球米诺陶的窒息

Nov 11, 2021 James K. Galbraith

奥斯汀—供应链就像罗夏测验：每个经济分析师在其中看到的模式都反映了他或她自己的成见。这或许不可避免，因为每个人接受的教育不同、家庭背景不同、产生的成见也不同。但一些观察到的模式貌似比其他模式更为可信。

让我们看看以下几个“模式”。美国前总统奥巴马的首席经济顾问贾森•弗曼(Jason Furman)和美国前财政部长劳伦斯•H.萨默斯(Lawrence H. Summers)认为，今天的供应链问题是一种需求过剩问题。根据弗曼的说法，这是一种反映强劲经济的“高端”问题。其“原罪”是美国的纾困计划(American Rescue Plan)：该计划通过直接向美国家庭拨款给予了他们过多的支持。

RealClearMarkets编辑约翰·塔姆尼(John Tamny)认为，供应链问题应归咎于“政府之手”。如果拜登政府没有向港口管理者发出指令，自由市场就会解决一切问题。而哥伦比亚商学院(Columbia Business School)管理学教授维•费德鲁恩(Awi Federgruen)认为，供应链问题在于效率低下，解决之道是要努力提升效率，用更少的钱做更多的事。

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to PS Digital

Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.

Subscribe Now

James K. Galbraith

Writing for PS since 2015
33 Commentaries

James K. Galbraith, Professor of Government and Chair in Government/Business Relations at the University of Texas at Austin, is a former staff economist for the House Banking Committee and a former executive director of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. From 1993-97, he served as chief technical adviser for macroeconomic reform to China’s State Planning Commission. He is the author of Inequality: What Everyone Needs to Know (Oxford University Press, 2016) and Welcome to the Poisoned Chalice: The Destruction of Greece and the Future of Europe (Yale University Press, 2016).

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 5 Comments on this article

Procyon Mukherjee Nov 15, 2021

This is no great mystery, what constitutes the current supply chain woes. When consolidation happens at a massive scale (90% of useful capacity is consolidated in 10 hands globally) driven by complete lack of global regulation in the shipping space; this is just the tip of the iceberg, from carriers to Port Terminal operators, who have also simultaneously consolidated into a handful, the dance of the Titans is complete.

But this disruption exists, because it can be financed.

The consolidation extends to sharing of parcel space in every conceivable element of transit, use of slow movement to reduce cost, allowing special conditions that cannot be given by smaller players like keeping the transit in abeyance, including storage and space use, the entire network effect of large consolidation is fully in view.

Massification of container shipping ( average number of TEUs) is now at 10000 per vessel, that makes asynchronism a reality, which sends shock waves to the entire supply chain space on both sides, that the rest of the supply chain must endure. The cost of all this is finally going to be borne by the consumers.

Add to this the posturing by the giants of retail and on-liners who prepone and postpone at will, raising the disruption by a few more notches in those goods.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
P I Nov 14, 2021

Persons are paying close attention to inflation and any lapse or oversight attributable to a lack of scrutiny is not easy to identify. There is little incentive to predict future dynamics of prices. Still, some zero in on specific issues for varied reasons, maybe preconceptions, and so there is a chance that the following will not regurgitate excessively.

Multiple narratives pertain to trucking. There are claims of a shortage of drivers, others write that working conditions are dominant and deterrent as an issue. Perhaps a lowering of the entry age for drivers, from 21 to 18 years, would increase the supply of those who use commercial licenses and adhere to stringent standards; as compared to staff that is sometimes paid a lower wage to maneuver a company van or similar, as within a regional constituency?

Younger persons may help alleviate some supply chain pressure(s)—which could have a moderating effect upon industry wages. However, if working conditions prevail, difficulty could be perpetuated. Additionally, fuel prices are up.

There are also products such as synthetic gypsum; which might be substituted away if its cost goes up over time. The lumber market appears to have corrected. Copper’s has not.

The dollar has strengthened recently and we use it to price such commodities. A weakening dollar is not currently an inflationary worry. It is not an observation that Jerome Powell is any kind of shill or stooge, for those who would devalue—the Trump administration maybe discernable from Coxey’s Army's message of "Death to interest bearing bonds" in that regard--whether he is clear choice for his job or not.

Excess demand is not emphasized in the piece above. At any rate, material indicates that no projects are shovel-ready. Legislated infrastructure spending is probably imminent. Therefore, support of a domestic labor market through future years, and associated demand, is likely.

How federal spending balances in relation to trucking, copper and the US dollar could be consequential.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.
Ayman Reda Nov 12, 2021

I supervise a number of businesses in the retail industry, and the wages we pay our workers have increased over the last year by at least 50%. This is one principal reason driving our price increases. Your analysis, though insightful and informative, completely overlooks this factor, and puts the blame on logistical transportation difficulties.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.