davies78_WANG ZHAOAFP via Getty Images_chinacentralbank

Economics

As sanções ocidentais vão mudar o sistema financeiro global?

Apr 28, 2022 Howard Davies

LONDRES – Diante dos horrores da invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia, e reconhecendo as limitadas opções militares abertas a eles, é compreensível que governos ocidentais estejam empregando seu arsenal econômico e financeiro. Tais sanções, é claro, foram impostas a países errantes no passado com sucesso variável, mas não na mesma medida que contra a Rússia agora.

Vale notar que os Estados Unidos e seus aliados apreenderam grande parte das reservas cambiais do banco central russo, além de terem cortado o acesso de alguns bancos russos ao sistema SWIFT de mensagens financeiras para transações internacionais. O mundo aprendeu uma nova palavra – deswifting –, e o sistema financeiro foi instrumentalizado como nunca antes.

É cedo demais para avaliar o impacto das sanções contra a Rússia; ainda não há sinais de um efeito decisivo sobre o regime do presidente Vladimir Putin ou suas políticas econômicas. Mas é provável que o dano de longo prazo à economia da Rússia seja significativo.

To continue reading, register now.

Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.

As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.

Already have an account? Log in

Subscribe to PS Digital

Access every new PS commentary, our entire On Point suite of subscriber-exclusive content – including Longer Reads, Insider Interviews, Big Picture/Big Question, and Say More – and the full PS archive.

Subscribe Now

new comment has been posted. new comments have been posted.

0 Comments on this paragraph, 4 Comments on this article

vic lai Apr 28, 2022

Whether the western sanctions will change the global financial system in the future, depends both on the current intention (or ambition) of the Russian and Chinese top leaders and on their knowledge about the nature of a global internationalized currency.
---
If only little is being done, like Russia's current insistence on the use of ruble alone as both the unit of account and the medium of exchange for the natural gas (and other resource) transaction between the EU and Russia, the global financial system won't be much affected.
---
If much more are being done, like Russia's (and China's) developing much further her country's central government treasury market, FX market, commodity market, stock market, and money market (including the forward market, repo market, derivative market), improving the banking system, and strengthening their domestic legal system, thereby enabling the Russian ruble to become also a reliable store of value and standard for deferred payment in international interactions, inducing the EU countries and many other foreign countries to accumulate rubles as part of the FX reserves of their central banks in the coming years, in direct competition with the US dollar, then the future global financial system will be much affected, and may transform from Bretton woods II to BW III much more easily in the coming decades.
---
Today, contrary to popular opinion, too much credit has been given to the chairperson of Russia's central bank, simply because, when the internationalization of the ruble is concerned, "so little" has been done by her (and her boss) so far.
---
- vic lai Apr 29, 2022
  
  I think, CBDC digital ruble, now being planned by the Bank of Russia (while banning cryptocurrencies in Russia at the same time), just caters to the unit of account cum medium of exchange function of the ruble as one of the world's potential international currencies, like China's own CBDC digital yuan does.
  If no new innovations such as digital ruble treasury bills or bonds or something similar are considered and propagated by the BOR at the same time, the other arguably even more important aspect of an important international currency ------- the store of value cum standard for deferred payment function ------ is still missing, meaning that the vitally important job of ruble internationalization is only half done, and the transition from BW II to BW III of the global monetary system will be further delayed or even impossible.
  ---
  It's even better if Russia could, like today's US, has balance-of-payment deficits year-in and year-out, with little or no capital control, so that the international environment for the ruble acting as one of the world's important reserve currencies can be realized.
  Same for China's yuan.
  ---
  - vic lai Apr 30, 2022
    
    Why does the EU "foolishly" insist on keeping sanctioning Russia, when she is fully aware that doing so will significantly bid up the energy and food prices in western Europe ?
    Why doesn't Russia finish the war in a short period of time but instead chooses to prolong it ?
    America seems to be standing to gain from this prolonged military conflict.
    ---
    The longer the war lasts, the longer and more serious is the inflationary pressure in America (and elsewhere), thereby forcing the US Fed, or giving the Fed a legitimate excuse, to "suicidally" prop up the interest rates in the country, and so popping the country's bond-stock-housing market bubbles all at the same time, giving rise to another prolonged balance-sheet economic recession and hence secular stagnation in America as a result.
    Russia's demand for the EU to pay in rubles when the EU buys natural gas from Russia also facilitates the transition of the global monetary system from BW II to BW III, when many other similar resource-exporting countries will require their importing countries to also pay in their own currencies, and when more and more effective OPEC+-like cartels will be formed and enforced in the future.
    ---
    It's said on the internet that the current Ukraine War has been a cryptic attempt by both Russia and the EU to try to dethrone the US Dollar in the global monetary system !
    America beware.
    ---
    A new reply to this comment has been posted.
  A new reply to this comment has been posted.
A new reply to this comment has been posted.

https://prosyn.org/RM8aFTxpt

As sanções ocidentais vão mudar o sistema financeiro global?

Subscribe to PS Digital

The Dollar’s Reserves of Strength

New Comment

Contact us

Log in/Register

As sanções ocidentais vão mudar o sistema financeiro global?

Subscribe to PS Digital

Edit Newsletter Preferences

Set up Notification